人口老龄化对家庭碳排放的影响——来自中国微观家庭的证据

The Impact of Population Aging on Household Carbon Emissions:Evidence from China

人口问题和环境问题已经成为人类社会面临的重大挑战。人口老龄化已成为中国长期不可逆转的趋势,其对家庭碳排放的影响不容忽视。基于消费者生活方式方法(CLA)理论框架,文章采用中国家庭追踪调查数据库(CFPS)数据,运用最小二乘法和工具变量法,从微观家庭的视角探究人口老龄化对家庭碳排放的影响。结果表明:人口老龄化通过降低家庭消费规模、改变家庭消费结构及消费偏好,进而影响家庭碳排放,总体而言,人口老龄化对家庭碳排放的净效应为正;家庭成员间的决策互动将决定人口老龄化对家庭碳排放的影响程度,在户主为老年人的家庭中,老龄化对碳排放的促进作用更为显著;人口老龄化对碳排放的影响存在城乡和地区差异。

Population and environmental issues have been great challenges for human society.Population aging has become a long-term irreversible trend in China,and its impact on household carbon emissions can not be ignored.Based on CLA theoretical framework,this paper employs the least square method and instrumental variable method and use the data of China Family Panel Study(CFPS) to explore the impact of population aging on household carbon emissions from the perspective of micro household.The results show that:(1) In general,population aging positively affects household carbon emissions by reducing household consumption scale,changing household consumption structure and household consumption preference.(2) The decision-making interaction among family members will determine the impact of population aging on household carbon emissions.In families headed by the elderly,the contribution of aging to carbon emissions is more significant.(3) There are urban-rural and regional differences in the impact of population aging on carbon emissions.