新发展格局中的城投债区域差异与全要素生产率的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Regional Differences of City Construction Investment Bond and Total Factor Productivity in the New Development Paradigm

城投债是我国地方政府投资基础设施、拉动经济增长的关键途径,弄清楚城投债对地方经济结构性问题的影响,是高质量发展的重要课题之一。本文研究发现,城投债规模对地方企业全要素生产率、经济增长均有正向作用,且在土地财政政策下,房地产市场的繁荣有助于城投债发挥效应,该效应随着国家管控趋严而弱化。城投债的区域异质性可能会放大区域结构问题,促进产业结构升级的同时加重经济二元性特征,在高偿债能力地区助力工业壮大,在中偿债能力地区促进商业服务业繁荣,在低偿债能力地区对产业结构影响甚微。

Urban investment bonds are the main path for local governments to invest in infrastructure and stimulate economic growth.Identifying the impact of city construction investment bond on local economic structural problems is an important topic for high-quality development.This study finds that the scale of city construction investment bond has a positive effect on the total factor productivity of local enterprises and economic growth,and under the land finance,strong property market also produces a marked effect,this moderating effect is weakened with the tightening of state control.The regional heterogeneity of city construction investment bond may amplify the regional structural problems and economic duality while upgrading industrial structure.City construction investment bond stimulate the industrial growth in areas with high solvency,promote commercial services in areas with medium solvency,and have little impact on the industrial structure in areas with low solvency.