拜登政府的东南亚政策发展轨迹、影响及趋势

OnBiden Administration's Southeast Asia Policies:Developments,Influence and Trends

文章通过采用文献研究法与案例分析法,对拜登政府执政以来所采取的东南亚政策的影响和轨迹进行研究,并在此基础上对美国未来东南亚政策的发展趋势作出合理推测,对中国及东盟国家的应对之策进行分析研究。文章认为,相较特朗普政府对东南亚地区的“冷处理”和“边缘化”,拜登政府的东南亚政策有了较大调整,其执政显著加强了对东南亚地区的战略投入,提升与东盟国家外交关系,强化在东南亚的政治、军事和经济影响力,重塑地区规则秩序。受拜登政府的东南亚政策影响,当前东南亚地区多边合作遭受冲击,和平安全隐患显现,现有经贸秩序也受到冲击。同时也应看到,中国—东盟友好合作关系积淀深厚,东盟国家“不选边站”立场韧性较强,拜登政府执政首年对东盟国家的接触拉拢并未取得预期效果。为此,拜登政府通过《印太战略报告》作出一定政策调整,着重强化长期影响力渗透力。未来拜登政府将在《印太战略报告》方针指导下持续加强美国在东南亚地区的话语权,构筑并强化遏华阵线。然而,拜登政府政策执行仍面临国内外多重因素掣肘和挤占资源,同时中国坚定携手东盟国家维护地区开放合作主基调,共建更为紧密的中国—东盟命运共同体,导致美国难以达成其战略意图。

This article applies existing literature and cases to investigate the influence and trajectory of Southeast Asia policies adopted by the U.S.since the Biden Administration,and on this basis,makes a reasonable prediction of the future development of the Southeast Asia policy of the U.S.andanalyzes the countermeasures of China and ASEAN countries.The author believes that,compared with the indifferent-style policies of the Trump Administration towards Southeast Asia,the Biden Administration took a major shift of course by increasing significantly strategic investment in this region,intensifying contact with local nations,and strengthening the projection of political,military and economic influence so as to reshape regional order.Affected by Biden's policies,Southeast Asia is now suffering from a fracturing multilateral atmosphere,and is threatened by increasing security challenges,existing economic and trade institutions are also risking irrelevance.However,it should be noted that China does share a deeprooted,productive and cooperative relationship with ASEAN,driving ASEAN nations to fortify their resilient‘Taking no Sides'policy,for which,Biden Administration,during their first year,did not reach their expected goals to persuade ASEAN support.Taking note of this situation,the Biden Administration restructured their Southeast Asian policies in the Indo-Pacific Strategyreport,and is shifting their concern over asserting long-term influence.It is expected that in the future,Biden will continue to strengthen U.S.existence among ASEAN nations,to support its antiChina agenda.Despite this vision,the Biden Administration is still hampered by multiple obstaclesat home and abroad,blocking effective policy implementation;whereas China at the same time is firmly defending an open and cooperative regional agenda along with ASEAN nations,and is building an even closer China-ASEAN community with a shared future,resulting in major difficulties for the U.S.to reach its strategic goals.