邮轮建造过程中内装物资需求量组合预测

Combination Forecasting on Interior Decoration Materials Demand during Cruise Ship Construction

为了预测邮轮建造过程每个周期内装物资的需求量,选用Winter指数平滑法、ARIMA模型和神经网络3种方法,通过比较已有的权重确定方法来确定各种预测方法的权系数,从而构建最优的组合模型对内装物资需求量进行预测,并以某船厂2019年7月—2022年3月内装物资消耗量数据进行实例分析。研究结果显示:应用组合预测方法对内装物资需求量进行预测是可行的;相比于单项预测方法,基于组合预测模型计算出来的各评价指标值普遍更优;在运用组合预测模型进行预测时,除了要选择合适的预测方法外,各预测方法的权重也会对最终结果产生影响。上述研究结果可为邮轮建造企业物资管理部门提供一定的参考。

In order to predict the monthly quantity of interior materials for the cruise ship construction process,three prediction methods,namely Winter exponential smoothing method,ARIMA model and neural network are selected,by comparing the existing weight determination methods,the weights of various prediction methods are determined,and constructing the optimal combination model to predict the demand of interior materials.The data of the consumption of interior materials in a shipyard from July 2019 to March 2022 is analyzed,and it is feasible to forecast the demand for interior materials by combined forecasting model.Compared with the single forecasting method,the values of evaluation index calculated based on these combined forecasting models are generally better.Besides choosing the appropriate forecasting method,the weight of the forecasting method will also affect the final result.The results can provide reference for the material management department of cruise ship construction enterprises.