激励与惩罚:碳排放权交易试点对产业结构的影响

Incentives and Penalties:The Impact of Pilot Carbon Emissions Trading on Industrial Structure

从市场激励机制和市场惩罚机制两个角度,结合市场供需平衡的经济思想,借助“污染避难所假说”和“波特假说”分析碳排放权交易市场试点对产业结构调整的影响机制及异质性特征。在此基础上构建渐进双重差分模型,选取中国2008—2019年30个省际面板数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明:碳排放权交易市场有利于产业结构合理化、高级化,促进产业结构优化升级;碳排放权交易市场通过“污染避难所假说”倒逼高耗能、高污染产业退出,推动产业结构优化升级;碳排放权交易市场试点通过“波特假说”牵引低碳产业或高耗能产业技术创新,拉动产业结构优化升级;碳排放权交易试点对产业结构优化升级的影响存在区域异质性。完善已经扩大的碳排放权交易市场,征收碳交易行政性费用,通过行政手段提高碳排放权交易市场价格,并补贴碳排放权交易市场的供给侧,加快完善北方高污染地区的碳排放交易机制,有利于更好地促进产业结构优化升级。

From the two perspectives of market incentive mechanism and market punishment mechanism,and by using the economic idea of market supply and demand balance,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism and heterogeneity characteristics of the pilot carbon emissions trading market on industrial structure adjustment based on the“Pollution Heaven Hypothesis”and“Porter Hypothesis”.A progressive difference-in-differences model was constructed and the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2019 are selected for empirical research.The results show that the carbon emissions trading market is conducive to the rationalization,optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.Carbon emissions trading market forces the withdrawal of industries with high energy consumption and high pollution through the“Pollution Heaven Hypothesis”,and promotes the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.Carbon emissions trading market pilot drives technological innovation of low-carbon or energy-intensive industries through“Porter Hypothesis”,and further promotes the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of carbon emissions trading pilot on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.It is necessary to further improve the expanded carbon emissions trading market,collect administrative fees for carbon trading,raise the price of carbon emission trading market through administrative means,subsidize the supply-side of carbon emission trading market,and accelerate the improvement of the carbon emissions trading mechanism in northern highly polluted areas,so as to better promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.