气候变暖背景下樟树食叶害虫樟巢螟分布格局预测分析

Prediction of the potential distribution areas of Orthaga achatina Butler under climate change

为明确樟树重要食叶害虫樟巢螟在我国的适生性,根据全国林业有害生物普查数据及相关文献资料中的最新分布数据,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对其当前和未来在我国的潜在地理分布进行预测,并对相关环境因子的贡献率进行分析。结果表明,所构建MaxEnt模型的AUC均值高于0.9,说明模型具有较高的预测准确性;影响樟巢螟适生区分布的主导气候变量和条件为:最暖季降水量(367.64—2222 mm)、等温性(0.16—34.80)、年平均气温(13.68—38.58℃)、最暖季平均气温(25.18—45.53℃)。MaxEnt模型预测,在当前气候条件下,樟巢螟在我国适生区位于104°—121°E,20°—35°N区域内,总面积为181.11万km 2,占国土总面积的18.87%。在未来(2041—2060年,2061—2080年)2个时期CCM4气候变化模型下rcp26和rcp452种碳排放模式,樟巢螟适生区主要位于103°—121°E,20°—40°N区域内,总面积187.79万—210.39万km 2,占国土总面积的19.56%—21.92%,发生面积与当代樟巢螟预测面积相比较有所增加,发生区逐渐向北扩张,其中高适生区增加明显,中低生区减少,低适生区增加明显。

In order to determine the suitability of the important leaf-eating pest of Cinnamomum camphora,according to the latest distribution data the national forestry pest census and relevant literatures,MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict its current and future potential geographical distribution in the whole contry,and the contribution rate of relevant environmental factors was analyzed.The results show that the average area under curve(AUC)of MaxEnt model higher than 0.9,indicating that the model high prediction accuracyThe main climatic variables and conditions affecting the distribution of the suitable habitat for O.achatina precipitation of warmest quarter(367.64—2222 mm),isotherm(0.16—34.80),annual mean temperature(13.68—38.58℃),and mean temperature of warmest quarter(25.18—45.53℃).The MaxEnt model that under current climatic conditions,the suitable habitat for O.achatina in China is located in the areas of 104°—121°E,20°—35°N,with a total area of 1.8111 million km 2,accounting for 18.87%of the total land area,under the CCM4 climate change modelsuitable area for the O.achatina is mainly located in the areas of 103°—121°E,20°—40°N,with a total area 1.8779 million to 2.1039 million km 2,accounting for 19.56%—21.92%.with the current climate conditions,under the future global warming scenario,the occurrence area of O.achatina gradually expand northward,the number of high suitable areas increased significantlythof middlelow suitable areas decreased.