基于SPR模型湖南省水资源承载力评估研究

Evaluation and comparison of water resources carrying capacity in Hunan Province based on SPR model

【目的】水资源承载力是区域可持续发展的基础,也是核心竞争力的重要指标,对其进行量化评估与比较是厘清区域发展能力的关键环节。【方法】该文基于湖南省水资源承载力评估目标,选取状态、压力、响应共3个因子层、12项关键指标,以湖南省各市州为单元,采用熵权法,构建湖南省水资源承载力评估指标体系。该文采用湖南省2012—2021年的统计数据均值为原始值,对湖南省14个市州的水资源承载力进行综合评价和比较,为制定湖南省水资源相关政策和合理调度水资源提供数据支持。【结果】湖南省水资源整体上并不匮乏。在评价因子层中,压力的权重最低,约占20%,状态和响应各占约40%;郴州和怀化市在水资源调蓄和涵养能力上具备的优势最大,长株潭地区用水压力最大,但其具备产业结构和水资源开发利用率方面的优势。【结论】湖南省整体上水资源的使用压力和状态尚在可承受范围内。总体而言,该省的水资源承载力最高和最低的地区均主要由其自然条件主导,而水资源承载力居中的地区主要由其产业结构和水资源开发利用率主导。提升水资源开发利用率、兴修水利工程对水资源进行合理配置能有效提高湖南省水资源承载力。

[Purposes]Water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)is an important index for measuring the basic requirements for regional sustainable development and core competitiveness.Quantitative evaluation and comparison of WRCC is the key to clarify the regional development capacity.[Methods]Twelve key indices from three factors layers(the SPR model),i.e.,support state,use pressure,and control responre were selected based on the evaluation target of WRCC in Hunan Province.The evaluation index system of WRCC in Hunan Province was established using the method of entropy weight with a unit of prefecture level city.The averaged statistics from 2012 to 2021 was used as the original value to comprehensively evaluate and compare the advantages and disadvantages of WRCC of 14 prefecture level cities in Hunan Province,so as to provide data support for improving WRCC of Hunan Province.[Findings]Results showed that the water resources in Hunan Province were not deficient on the whole.Among the evaluation factor layers,pressure has the lowest weight(about 20%),while support and response has a weight of 40%respectively.Chenzhou and Huaihua have greater advantages in water resources conservation and storage capacity.Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan region is under the greatest water use pressure,but has advantages in industry and water resources development efficiency.[Conclusions]The overall water use pressure and the relative state of water resources in Hunan is within the tolerable range.The region with the highest and lowest WRCC is mainly controlled by its natural conditions,while the region with a middle WRCC is mainly controlled by the industrial structure and development and utilization efficiency.Improving the water use efficiency,and rational allocation of water resources through hydraulic engineering can effectively improve the WRCC in Hunan Province.