基于LEAP模型的青海省能源领域碳达峰路径研究

Energy field in Qinghai Province based on LEAP model Carbon peaking pathway research

文章以青海省2015—2019年能源发展以及碳排放现状为基础,基于能源电力碳排放特征及减排潜力,设计基准、同步达峰、引领达峰三个综合情景,模拟青海省二氧化碳能源领域碳排放发展趋势,预测碳达峰目标。模型预测结果显示:在三种情景下,青海省均能实现提前达峰,其中经济增长是碳排放增加的主要因素,与之相对的各行业的技术进步带来的能源强度的下降则是碳排放量得到控制的主要因素;电力清洁化的应用以及能源结构的进一步调整也促进了青海碳排放增速的放缓。

Based on the current situation of energy development and carbon emissions in Qinghai Province from 2015 to 2019,combined with the carbon emission characteristics and emission reduction potential of energy and electricity,this paper designs three comprehensive scenarios of benchmark,synchronous peaking and leading peaking,simulates the development trend of carbon emissions in the fi eld of carbon dioxide energy in Qinghai Province,and predicts the carbon peaking target.According to the model prediction results,Qinghai Province can achieve early peak under three scenarios,of which economic growth is the main factor for the increase of carbon emissions,while the decline in energy intensity brought about by technological progress in various industries is the main factor for controlling carbon emissions.The application of clean electricity and the further adjustment of the energy structure have also contributed to the slowdown of the growth rate of carbon emissions in Qinghai.