粮食主产区农业碳排放效率时空演变及影响因素研究

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency in Major Grain Producing Areas

文章基于粮食主产区2001—2020年的面板数据,利用SBM-Undesirable模型和Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数从静态和动态两个方面测度了粮食主产区农业碳排放效率,并结合Tobit模型探究影响粮食主产区农业碳排放效率变化的关键因素。结果表明:(1)粮食主产区农业碳排放效率均值为0.540,未达到有效状态;省域之间差别明显,只有辽宁长期处于有效状态,其余省份均为DEA无效。(2)粮食主产区农业碳排放综合效率总体呈波动上升趋势,年均增速为5.1%,前沿技术进步是促进农业碳排放效率增长的主要因素。各省份的农业碳排放综合效率值均大于1,前沿技术进步在各省份农业碳排放效率的增长上发挥的作用高于技术效率,纯技术效率与规模效率的贡献程度因省份不同而有所差异,但规模效率的贡献要明显大于纯技术效率。(3)农业经济发展水平和农村用电量对粮食主产区农业碳排放具有显著的正向作用;农业产业结构、城镇化水平、财政支农具有显著的负向作用;自然灾害与农产品价格体制改革并未通过显著性检验。基于此,提出了提高农业经济发展水平、推动新型城镇化高质量发展、加强农业科技创新和调整农业产业结构等政策建议。

Based on the panel data of the main grain-producing areas from 2001 to 2020,this paper uses the SBM-Undesirable model and the Malmquist-Lunberger productivity index to measure the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of the main grainproducing areas from both static and dynamic aspects,and combines the Tobit model to explore the key factors affecting the change of agricultural carbon emission efficiency of the main grain-producing areas.The results are as follows.(1)The average agricultural carbon emission efficiency in the main grain producing areas was 0.540,which does not reach the effective state.The difference between provinces is obvious.Only Liaoning is in a long-term effective state,and the rest provinces are invalid in DEA.(2)The comprehensive efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain-producing areas showed a fluctuating upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of 5.1%.The progress of cutting-edge technology is the main factor to promote the growth of agricultural carbon emissions efficiency.The comprehensive efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in each province is greater than 1.The role of cutting-edge technological progress in the growth of agricultural carbon emissions efficiency in each province is higher than that of technical efficiency.The contribution of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency varies with provinces,but the contribution of scale efficiency is significantly greater than that of pure technical efficiency.(3)The level of agricultural economic development and rural electricity consumption have a significant positive effect;Agricultural industrial structure,urbanization level and financial support for agriculture have significant negative effects;Natural disasters and the reform of agricultural product price system have not passed the significance test.Based on this,some policy suggestions were put forward to improve the level of agricultural economic development,promote the high-quality development of new urbanization,strengthen agricultural scientific and technological innovation and adjust agricultural industrial structure.