美国货币政策变化的实质、前景及影响

The Nature,Outlook and Impact of Changes in US Monetary Policy

就当前经济形势而言,美国宏观调控的首要目的,是维持合意的经济增长和通货膨胀组合;美联储货币政策的真实目的是“强美元”。美加息不改美国经济“滞胀”的内在长期趋势,美国经济承受加息余地已消耗殆尽,金融市场已不支持美元再加息,未来美元加息或低于市场预期。“强美元”态势并非美元加息的结果,未来中美间利差水准不会扩大。美国资本市场受美元加息累积效应的影响,不仅股市跌势未止,市场高波动性也将维持,金融市场动荡将大大冲减“强美元”收益。

In terms of the current economic situation,the primary purpose of us macro-control is to maintain a desirable combination of economic growth and inflation;the real purpose of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is to“strengthen the dollar”.The US interest rate hike does not change the internal long-term trend of“stagflation”of the US economy;the US economy has exhausted the room for interest rate increase;the financial market has not supported the US dollar interest rate hike;and the future interest rate hike of the US dollar may be lower than the market expectations.The“strong dollar”trend is not the result of the US dollar interest rate hike,and the interest rate differential between China and the US will not widen in the future.Affected by the cumulative effect of the US dollar interest rate hike,not only the stock market has not stopped falling,but also the market volatility will remain high,and the financial market turmoil will greatly reduce the“strong dollar”earnings.