全球变暖背景下东亚夏季风强度潜在可预报性增加的分析

Enhanced Potential Predictability of East Asia Summer Monsoon Intensity under Global Warming

针对东亚夏季风强度潜在可预报性对全球变暖响应的问题,利用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的模拟实验数据,采用信噪比方法预估未来东亚夏季风强度潜在可预报性的变化。研究结果表明:在共享社会经济路径高等情景SSP5-8.5下,15个模式中共有14个模式(93.3%)模拟结果显示未来100年(2000-2099年)相比过去100年(1900-1999年)东亚夏季风强度潜在可预报性增加。未来100年厄尔尼诺事件发生次数增多导致ENSO变率增加,ENSO变率的增加会导致更强的夏季热带印度洋海温变率,从而增强夏季西北太平反气旋,为东亚夏季风提供更强的外部信号,导致未来100年东亚夏季风强度潜在可预报性相较于过去100年显著增加。

In order to investigate the impact of global warming on the potential predictability of East Asia summer monsoon(EASM)intensity,the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)simulated experimental data is used and the method of signal-to-noise ratio approach is used to predict changes in the potential predictability of future EASM intensity.The results show that 14 out of 15 models(93.3%)simulated under the Shared Society-economic Pathways(SSP)5-8.5 scenario show an increase in the potential predictability of EASM intensity in the next 100 years(2000-2099)compared to the last 100 years(1900-1999).An increase in the number of El Nino events over the next 100 years leads to an increase in ENSO variability,which leads to stronger summer tropical Indian Ocean SST variability,which enhances the summer northwest Pacific anticyclone and provides a stronger external signal for the EASM,leading to a significant increase in the potential predictability of EASM intensity over the next 100 years compared to the past 100 years.