基于历史文献重建的越南耕地面积数据集(1500-2000)研发方法

Dataset of Cultivated Land in Vietnam Reconstructed from Historical Documents for the Period 1500–2000 A.D.

历史土地利用数据集的有效构建在解析长期土地覆被变化过程、诊断气候变化机理、评估人类活动影响等方面具有重要意义。本文针对过去匮乏历史耕地面积重建结果的越南,以《世界人口历史图集》《The World Economy:Volume 1:A Millennial Perspective and Volume 2:Historical Statistics》《International Historical Statistics:Africa,Asia&Oceania,1750-1988》为基本人口资料,利用历史文献插补、融合得到其1500-2000年16个关键时点的人口总数;进一步结合稻田面积、稻田/耕地面积比、口粮标准、土地税制、稻米产量与熟制等方面的资料,分别基于人均耕地面积和人均粮食占有量两指标,推算出其耕地面积变化过程。结果表明,过去五百年越南耕地面积呈现出近似指数型的波动上升趋势,期间在1850年前的增长幅度较为缓慢,而在1850年后迅猛增长。本文结果较之HYDE3.2、SAGE等全球数据集中的越南耕地面积数据,既有一定的一致性,又有着更高的时间分辨率(50年),进一步揭示了历史时期自然环境和社会经济的波动。

The effective reconstruction of historical land use datasets is of great importance for analyzing the process of long-term land cover changes,diagnosing the mechanism of climate change,and evaluating the impact of human activities.Aimed at Vietnam,which has lacked reconstructed results for historical cultivated land area in the past,this paper takes The Atlas of World Population History,The World Economy:Volume 1:A Millennial Perspective and Volume 2:Historical Statistics and International Historical Statistics:Africa,Asia&Oceania,1750–1988 as the basic population information,and obtains the total population at 16 key time points between 1500 and 2000 A.D.by interpolation and fusion of historical documents.Further,combined with data for paddy field area,the ratio of paddy field area to cultivated land area,the grain ration standard,land tax systems,paddy field yields,and ripening system,the process of change in cultivated land area was deduced using two indicators of cultivated land area per capita and grain possession per capita.The results showed that the cultivated land area of Vietnam has shown an almost exponential upward trend over the past 500 years,with a slow increase before 1850 A.D.and a rapid increase after 1850 A.D.Compared with global datasets such as the History Database of the Global Environment(HYDE)3.2 and SAGE,the results of this paper not only have a certain consistency but they also have greater temporal resolution(50 years),and are more in line with the fluctuations in the natural environment and of the social economy over historical periods.