甘肃省白银市发生鼠疫疫情的风险评估

Risk assessment of plague outbreak in Baiyin City of Gansu Province

目的 评估白银市两个鼠疫重点县区鼠疫发生的风险,提出科学有效的鼠疫防控措施和管理建议。方法 收集两个县区2013—2022年鼠疫监测数据资料,以及疫情历史、人群卫生习惯、地理环境因素等资料;采用“鼠疫风险评估工具”(国家版权局软件登记号为2014 SR175854)以县区为单位进行鼠疫风险评估,计算风险分值。结果 2013—2022年,白银市无人间疑似及确诊鼠疫病例报告;平川区、会宁县阿拉善黄鼠密度分别波动在0.26~0.51只/hm^(2)、0.23~0.38只/hm^(2)之间,均超过0.2只/hm^(2),低于3.0只/hm^(2);两县区鼠体蚤指数波动范围分别为0.88~3.19、0.71~3.31,均超过0.5,低于5.0;采用细菌学方法、间接血凝试验(IHA)等,检验结果全部为阴性。“鼠疫风险评估工具”评估结果显示,平川区、会宁县风险分值分别为0.226 799 6和0.248 283 5,均属鼠疫发生风险较低地区。结论 两个重点鼠疫监测县区发生本地人间鼠疫疫情的风险较低,但不能排除鼠疫疫情输入的可能性,今后仍需不断加强鼠疫监测与防控工作。

Objectives To assess the risk of plague occurrence in two key plague counties of Baiyin City, in order to put forward scientific and effective control measures and management suggestions.Methods Collecting data on plague surveillance in two counties from 2013 to 2022,as well as information on epidemic history, population hygiene habits and geographical environmental factors;Using Plague Risk Assessment V1.0(National Copyright Administration Software Registration No.2014SR175854) to conduct plague risk assessment based on counties and calculated the risk score.Results From 2013 to 2022,no suspected and confirmed human plague cases were reported in Baiyin City;The density of Spermophilus dauricus alaschanicus in Pingchuan District and Huining County fluctuates between 0.26 to 0.51 per hectare and 0.23 to 0.38 per hectare, both exceeding 0.2 per hectare and less than 3.0 per hectare;The fluctuation range of the rat flea index was 0.88 to 3.19,0.71 to 3.31,both exceeding 0.5 and less than 5.0;Using bacteriological methods, indirect hemagglutination test(IHA),etc.The test results were all negative.The evaluation results of Plague Risk Assessment V1.0 showed that the risk scores of Pingchuan District and Huining County were 0.226 799 6 and 0.248 283 5,respectively, which belonged to areas with a low risk of plague occurrence.Conclusions The risk of local human plague epidemics in two key plague monitoring counties is relatively low, but the possibility of plague input cannot be ruled out.In the future, it is still necessary to continuously strengthen plague monitoring and prevention and control.