资源税改革推动了城市经济增长与产业结构转型吗?

Does Resource Tax Reform Promote Urban Economic Growth and Industrial Structure Transformation?

本文就资源税改革对资源型城市经济增长与产业结构调整的政策效应展开研究,将2010年自新疆试点开始推广的油气税改革作为研究对象,以2005—2018年资源型地级市面板数据为样本,选择双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID)进行了实证检验。其实证检验结果显示:资源税改革抑制了试点城市的经济增长,且资源依赖程度越高,抑制效果越明显。通过替换被解释变量、更换匹配方法、构造虚拟政策时点、构造虚拟实验组和考虑政策混杂效应五个方面的稳健性检验,证实了研究结论的可靠性。异质性和动态效应检验表明,资源税改革带来的负面冲击在成长和成熟型城市表现较为突出,在中西部地区表现更为明显,且其政策效果随时间呈现“倒U型”特征。产业结构的分析表明,资源税改革没有起到促进资源型城市产业结构转型的作用,而且其资源依赖程度越高,产业结构转型的阻力越大。本文的研究结论不仅为资源税改革的政策效应提供一个新的证据,而且为新时代全面深化税收制度改革和促进资源型城市可持续发展的政策制定提供有益借鉴。

The resource tax reform from volume-based tax to ad valorem tax tightly associates tax payable with the price movement,so as to encourage rational exploitation and utilization of mineral resources and achieve sustainable economic development.However,its implementing effect has not been adequately confirmed.Distinguished with existing studies,this study investigates the impact of resource tax reform on the economic growth and industrial structure transformation of resource-based cities.Taking the oil and gas re-source tax reform popularized since the pilot project in Xinjiang in 2010 as the research object,we employ the propensity score matching and the difference-in-difference(PSMDID)technique for empirical testing,based on the panel data of resource-based prefecturelevel cities from 2005 to 2018.The results show that resource tax reform has significantly restrained the economic growth of pilot cities.The higher the degree of resource dependence,the more obvious the restraining effect.Furthermore,the reliability of the conclusion is proved by robustness tests,including replacement of the dependent variable,replacement of the PSM matching method,virtual policy timing,virtual treatment group and considering the policy confounding effect.Heterogeneous and dynamic ef-fects tests demonstrate that the negative impact of resource tax reform is more prominent in the growing and mature resource-based cities,as well as in the central and western regions,and its overall dynamic effect presents an inverted U shape.Further analysis on the industrial structure shows that the resource tax reform has not promoted the industrial structure transformation of resource-based cities.The higher the degree of resource dependence,the greater the resistance to industrial structure transformation.The conclusion of this study not only provides a new evidence for the policy effect of resource tax reform,but also provides a useful reference for the policy formulation of comprehensively deepening the reform of tax system and promoting the sustainable development of resource-based cities in the new era.