互联网使用是否降低了生育意愿——来自代际交叠模型的证明

Does Internet Use Reduce the Willingness to Have Children? Proof from the Overlapping Generations Model

理解技术变革与人类社会之间的交互作用是经济研究的重要命题之一,本文在代际交叠(Overlapping Generations,OLG)模型中引入互联网设施,且使得生育决策内生化,推演互联网使用对个体生育意愿的作用原理;并利用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2017年、2018年的调查数据对理论命题进行检验,以期从人口趋势变动的角度理解互联网对于个体发展的影响。研究发现,个体对于互联网偏好程度的提高会通过“时间挤出机制”与“机会成本机制”两个机制的实现来降低其生育意愿。互联网使用一方面增加了个体劳动参与而挤出了抚养子代的时间,另一方面提升了个体收入水平却增加了生育的机会成本。前者被称为“时间挤出机制”,后者被称为“机会成本机制”,两种机制的共同作用抑制了个体生育意愿,并且这种抑制作用在未婚女性和农村女性群体中更为显著。因此,应当正确、客观地认识互联网使用对生育意愿的抑制作用,通过发展课后或假期托幼机构、降低女性职场歧视等方式抑制互联网使用对生育意愿的负面影响。

Understanding the interaction between technological change and human society is one of the important propositions in economics.This paper adding internet facilities and endogenous fertility decision-making into the Overlapping Generations(OLG)model,deduces the action principle of Internet use on individual fertility intention.The theoretical proposition is tested by the survey data of Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)in 2017 and 2018,in order to understand the impact of the Internet on individual development from the perspective of population trend change.It is found that the improvement of individuals'preference for the Internet will reduce their fertility intention through the realization of two mechanisms of"time squeeze"and"opportunity cost".On the one hand,the use of the Internet has increased individual labor participation and squeezed out the time to raise children.On the other hand,it has improved individual income level and increased the opportunity cost of childbirth.The former is called"time squeeze mechanism"and the latter is called"opportunity cost mechanism".The joint action of the two mechanisms inhibits individual childbearing intention.Moreover,this negative effect is more significant in young women and urban residents.Therefore,we should correctly and objectively understand the negative effect of Internet use on fertility intention,and reduce the time squeeze and opportunity cost mechanism of Internet use on fertility intention by developing after-school and holiday childcare institutions and reducing female workplace discrimination.