世界田径锦标赛男子项目成绩发展趋势及灰色预测研究

Research on the Development Trend and Grey Prediction of Men’s Events Results in the World Athletics Championships

本文以第15-18届世界田径锦标赛前三名成绩为基础,利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型方法探寻田径运动成绩的发展趋势。研究结果:男子项目总体呈现下降趋势,项目的发展速度不同。竞赛项目中400米栏发展速度最快,4*100米接力发展速度相对较慢。田赛项目中,跳远项目呈现增长趋势,标枪项目的下降趋势较快。灰色预测模型精准度较高,冠军模型有三个项目精准度为100%,亚军模型有六个项目精准度为100%,季军模型有两个项目精准度为100%,其余模型精准度均在85%以上。利用GM(1,1)模型可以预测第19、20届世界田径锦标赛部分项目成绩。

Based on the top three athletes’performance in the 15-18th World Athletics Championships,the development trend of athletics performance has been explored by using the grey prediction GM(1,1)model.The results show that the overall trend of men’s events is going downward,and the development speed of the events is different.The 400m hurdles developed the fastest,and the 4∗100m relay developed relatively slowly.In the field events,the long jump showed an increasing trend,while the javelin events had a rapid downward trend.The accuracy of the model is high.The accuracy of three items of the champion model is 100%,the accuracy of six items of the runner-up model is 100%,the accuracy of two items of the third place model is 100%,and the accuracy of the other models is above 85%.GM(1,1)model can be used to predict the results of some events in the 19th and 20th World Athletics Championships.