晋升激励与房价非线性波动

The Promotion Incentive and the Nonlinear Fluctuation of Housing Prices

文章采用2003—2019年中国287个地级市面板数据,基于土地财政和土地金融视角,探讨了地方官员晋升激励与房价的关系。研究表明,在强调地方经济增长目标的背景下,地方官员晋升激励与房价存在显著的“倒U型”关系,地方官员在任期内会通过土地财政和土地金融影响房价;地方官员晋升激励对东部和大中城市地区的房价存在显著的“倒U型”关系,对中部、西部和非大中城市地区的房价影响不显著。2013年取消GDP政绩考核目标后,有效缓解了地方官员晋升激励对房价的扭曲。本文的研究启示在于:应明晰中央与地方的事权与财权财力配置,优化地方官员考核机制,在绩效考核中取消GDP指标并引入民生、环保和居民满意度等指标;完善融资平台与士地融资制度,合理配置土地资源,科学合理制定土地价格,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。

Based on the panel data of 287 cities in China from 2003 to 2019,this paper explores the relationship between the promotion incentive of local officials and housing prices from the perspectives of land finance and land financialization.The research shows that there is a significant"inverted U-shaped"relationship between the promotion incentives of local officials and housing prices in the context of the emphasis on local economic growth targets.During their term of office,local officials will affect housing prices through land finance and land financialization.The promotion incentive of local officials has a significant"inverted U-shaped"relationship with the housing price in eastern and large and medium-sized urban areas but has no significant impact on the housing price in central and western areas and non-large and medium-sized urban areas.After the abolition of the GDP performance evaluation target in 2013,the distortion of the housing price caused by the promotion incentive of local officials can be effectively alleviated.The implications of this study are as follows:it is necessary to clarify the allocation of power and financial power between the central and local governments,optimize the assessment mechanism of local officials,cancel the GDP index and introduce indicators of people's livelihood,environmental protection and residents'satisfaction in the performance assessment.We should improve financing platforms and the land financing system,rationally allocate land resources,set land prices scientifically and reasonably,and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.