关中地区PM_(2.5)空间关联、溢出效应与治理成效

Spatial Correlation,Spillover Effects and Governance Effectiveness of PM_(2.5) in the Guanzhong Region

以大气污染严重的关中地区为研究对象,运用空间计量模型对2000—2020年PM_(2.5)空间关联特征及其影响因素的空间溢出效应进行分析。结果表明,关中地区PM_(2.5)呈现长期稳定的空间正相关性和局部聚集特征;人均生产总值、工业产值占比、能源强度具有显著的空间溢出效应,表明关中地区“GDP锦标赛”式发展方式、跨地区产业转移、以化石燃料为主的能源消费结构不利于地区空气质量改善。2013年陕西省出台《陕西省大气污染防治条例》后,大气污染区域联防联控发挥了“示范效应”,有效改善了地区环境质量。“十四五”时期关中地区应加强减污降碳协同政策设计,增加可再生能源消费比例,提高环境治理体系与治理能力现代化水平。

The spatial correlation characteristics of PM_(2.5) and the spatial spillover effects of its influencing factors from 2000 to 2020 are analyzed using a spatial econometric model for the Guanzhong region,where air pollution is serious.The results show that PM_(2.5) in the Guanzhong region exhibits the characteristics of long-term stable and positive spatial correlation and local aggregation.The spatial spillover effects of gross domestic product per capita,industrial output ratio,and energy intensity are statistically significant,indicating that the“GDP tournament”development mode,trans-regional industrial transfer and fossil fuel-based energy consumption structure in the Guanzhong region are not conducive to regional air quality improvement.Since Shaanxi Province issued the“Regulations on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in Shaanxi Province”in 2013,the joint prevention and control of air pollution in the region has shown a“demonstration effect”,which has effectively improved regional environmental quality.In the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the Guanzhong region should strengthen the design of synergistic policies to reduce pollution and carbon emissions,increase the proportion of renewable energy consumption,and improve the modernization of environmental governance system and capacity.