云南省甘蔗冻害风险分布及未来趋势预估

Risk Distribution and Trend Prediction of Sugarcane Freezing Injury in Yunnan Province

使用全球气候模式HadGEM2-ES、MPI-ESM-MR和NorESM1-M驱动的区域气候模式RegCM4的模拟输出,在对模拟的历史气候进行检验的基础上,确定一个最适模式HadGEM2-ES,基于灾害风险评估理论,结合云南省1981—2010年气象台站观测资料,分析了1981—2010年及未来2021—2050年逐年代在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下云南省甘蔗冻害风险的分布及变化趋势。结果表明:当代及未来云南省甘蔗冻害风险均以哀牢山-元江河谷为界,哀牢山以西以南大部为低风险区,以东以北大部为高风险区。在未来气候变化影响下,甘蔗冻害致灾因子危险性降低,孕灾环境敏感性不变,承灾体易损性增加,总体上冻害风险呈降低趋势,但区域差异显著。冻害高风险区面积减幅为2.84%~7.70%,低风险区面积增幅为1.59%~6.16%。空间分布上,哀牢山以西以南地区风险等级明显下降,哀牢山以东以北,高风险区面积略有增加趋势,尤其是文山大部始终维持较高风险等级。时间变化上,风险等级逐年代降低,低风险区面积呈增加趋势,高风险区面积呈减小趋势,并且高风险区面积减幅RCP8.5情景的> RCP4.5情景的> RCP2.6情景的。

Based on the disaster risk assessment theory,combined with the observation data in Yunnan Province from 1981 to 2010 and the simulation results of the regional climate model RegCM4,the risk distributions and varying trends of sugarcane freezing injury in Yunnan Province during 19812010 and the future 20212050 under scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are analyzed.Driven by the global climate model of HadGEM2-ES,MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M,the simulations of historical climate in Yunnan by RegCM4 are compared against observations to validate the model performance.The result shows that the risk distribution of sugarcane freezing injury is bounded by the line from Ailao Mountains to Yuanjiang river valley in Yunnan,with low risk areas to the south and the west of Ailao Mountains and high risk areas to the north and the east of the mountain.Under the influence of future climate change,the risk of sugarcane freezing disaster factors is projected to decline,the sensitivity of environment to disasters would remain the same but the vulnerability of disaster bearing would increase.On the whole,significant decline of sugarcane freezing injury is projected by the model,but there exist significant regional differences.The area with high risks of freezing damage would be reduced by 2.84%7.70%,while the area with low risks would increase by 1.59%6.16%.In terms of spatial distribution,the risk grade of the areas south and west of Ailao Mountains would decrease significantly,while the risk grade of the areas north and east of Ailao Mountain would maintain a higher level,especially in most of the Wenshan City,Yunnan Province,which infers that the area of high risk areas would have a tendency of increasing slightly.As for the temporal variation,the risk grade would descend year by year with the area of low risks to show an increasing trend.The decreasing amplitudes of the high-risk areas under difference scenarios are in the order of RCP8.5>RCP4.5>RCP2.6.