基于等维灰数递补GM(1,1)与发展带模型的我国安全生产事故预测研究

Research on safety production accident prediction in China based on equal dimensional grey number progressive supplement GM(1,1)and development zone model

通过选取我国安全生产事故数列,文章构建了等维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型和发展带反映式模型,模型精度达到1级。预测了我国“十四五”期间安全生产事故的点估计、区间估计(精度94%以上)与发展态势,即我国十四五期间除重特大事故死亡人数呈波动微升态势,其他事故数据预计均呈不同程度的下降;提出预测事故数据的最高值和最低值可作为我国2021-2025年安全事故预防的上界警戒值和下界最优值,而等维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型的预测值和发展带预测的基本值可作为同期安全生产事故数的目标参考值和评价值;提出了不同维数安全生产事故数据级比检验,映射出近几年来我国安全生产行为系统在全面发展与改革的扰动因素作用下发生了根本系统性变化。研究为政府相关部门制定安全生产规则、安全生产发展规划及开展安全生产行动方案提供基础支撑数据。

By selecting the number series of work safety accidents in China,this paper constructs the equal dimensional grey number progressive supplement GM(1,1)model and the development belt reflection model,and the accuracy of the model reaches level 1.The point estimation,interval estimation(with an accuracy of more than 94%)and development trend of work safety accidents in China during the 14th Five Year Plan period are predicted,that is,except that the death toll of major accidents fluctuated slightly during the 14th Five Year Plan period,the data of other accidents are expected to decline in varying degrees;It is proposed that the highest and lowest values of the predicted accident data can be used as the upper bound warning value and lower bound optimal value of safety accident prevention in China from 2021 to 2025,while the predicted value of the equal dimensional grey number progressive supplement GM(1,1)model and the basic value of the Development Zone prediction can be used as the target reference value and evaluation value of the number of safety production accidents in the same period;The level ratio test of safety production accident data with different dimensions is proposed,which reflects the fundamental and systematic changes of China’s safety production behavior system under the disturbance factors of all-round development and Reform in recent years.The study provides basic supporting data for relevant government departments to formulate work safety rules,work safety development plans and carry out work safety action plans.