居安思危:供应链关系稳定度对企业股价崩盘风险的非线性效应研究

Be Prepared for Danger:Research on the Nonlinear Effect of Supply Chain Relationship Stability on the Risk of Stock Price Collapse

基于协同演化理论,从供应链上下游关系角度系统考察客户稳定度和供应商稳定度对企业股价崩盘风险的影响机理。研究表明:客户稳定度和供应商稳定度对企业股价崩盘风险的作用呈非线性特征,具体表现为客户稳定度与企业股价崩盘风险呈现U型关系,而供应商稳定度与企业股价崩盘风险呈现倒U型关系;供应商和客户稳定度对企业商业信用的非对称性作用是其影响企业股价崩盘风险的重要传导因素。此外,相比非制造业企业,制造业企业客户稳定度对股价风险的作用效果更明显,股价崩盘风险累积程度更小。研究结论证实了由于客户和供应商在供应链条上的角色差异而导致客户稳定度和供应商稳定度对企业股价崩盘风险存在明显的不对称影响,也从供应链多主体视角有针对性地为构建股价崩盘风险预警与防范机制提供了参考。

Based on the co-evolution theory,the influence mechanism of customer stability and supplier stability on stock price crash risk is systematically investigated from the upstream and downstream angle.The research reveals that:The effect of customer stability and supplier stability on crash risk is nonlinear,which is specifically manifested in the U-shaped correlation of customer stability and inverted U-shaped correlation of supplier stability;The momentous transmission element of supply chain stability affecting crash risk is the asymmetric effect of supplier and customer stability on business credit;Compared with non-manufacturing enterprises,the influence of customer stability of manufacturing enterprises is more conspicuous,and the accumulation degree of crash risk is smaller.The conclusion confirms that due to the different roles of customers and suppliers in the supply chain,it leads to significant asymmetric impact of customer stability and supplier stability on the risk of stock price collapse,and furnishes a reference for the construction of crash risk warning and prevention mechanism from the point of multi-agent of supply chain.