公路交通与区域经济耦合协调发展驱动因素分析模型

Model on driving factors of coupling coordination development between highway transportation and regional economy

为推进公路交通与区域经济的协调发展,集成耦合协调模型、灰色关联度分析法、岭回归模型,分析公路交通与区域经济的耦合协调关系。在构建公路交通与区域经济耦合协调发展评价指标体系的基础上,基于2000—2020年黑龙江省公路交通与区域经济发展数据,利用熵值法和耦合协调模型测算公路交通与区域经济耦合协调发展水平。综合灰色关联度分析法和岭回归模型探测公路交通与区域经济耦合协调发展的驱动因子。结果表明:黑龙江省公路交通与区域经济耦合协调发展水平呈稳步上升态势,可划分为轻度失调、临界失调、良好协调和高度协调4个发展阶段;公路密度,第一产业增加值占国内生产总值比重,交通运输、仓储和邮政业增加值以及全社会固定资产投资占GDP比重是促进黑龙江省公路交通与区域经济协调发展的主要因素。

In order to promote the coordinated development between highway transportation and regional economy,the coupling coordination model,grey correlation degree analysis method and the ridge regression method were integrated to analyze the coupling coordination development relationship between highway transportation and regional economy.The evaluation index system of coupling coordination development between highway transportation and regional economy was established.Based on the data of highway transportation and regional economy development in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020,the coordinated development level of highway transportation and regional economy was calculated by using the entropy method and coupling coordination model.The methods of grey correlation analysis and ridge regression model were used to detect the driving factors of coupling coordination development between highway transportation and regional economy.The results show that the coupling coordination development level between highway transportation and regional economy in Heilongjiang Province is rising steadily,which can be divided into mild imbalance,critical imbalance,good coordination and highly coordination.The factors of highway density,GDP proportion of primary industry,added value of transportation,storage and postal service and fixed asset investment to GDP promote the coordinated development between highway transportation and regional economy in Heilongjiang Province.