2015-2019年贵港市手足口病空间聚集和气象因素影响分析

Analysis of spatial aggregation and meteorological factors of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Guigang,China,2015-2019

目的分析贵港市手足口病的空间分布特征,探讨气象因素对手足口病发病的影响及滞后效应。方法通过Arc-GIS10.8软件分析贵港市手足口病空间分布规律,利用核密度分析方法研究高发病地区,采用R 4.2.0软件对气象因素和手足口病日发病人数进行Spearman秩相关分析以及分布滞后非线性模型研究。结果2015—2019年贵港市手足口病累积报告40814例。贵港市手足口病存在空间聚集性,核密度分析显示高发病聚集区主要为贵城街道和江南办事处。手足口病发病与日平均气温、日降雨量和日照时数呈正相关,与日平均气压呈负相关。气温为30.4℃(P95)时,滞后21 d有最高累积滞后风险,RR为1.49(95%CI:1.23,1.80);气压为995.3 hPa(P5)时,滞后21 d有最高累积滞后风险,RR为1.56(95%CI:1.29,1.88);日降雨量为25.06 mm(P95)时,滞后21 d有最高累积滞后风险,RR为1.43(95%CI:1.16,1.77);日照时数为10.3 h(P95)时,滞后21 d有最低累积滞后风险,RR为0.48(95%CI:0.38,0.59)。结论高气温、低气压、较高的降雨量都会使手足口病的发病风险增加,而长日照会使发病风险降低,并且都具有一定的滞后效应,本研究可为手足口病的预警预测提供理论依据。

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease(HFMD)in Guigang,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region(GZAR),and to explore the influence and lag effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD.Methods The spatial distribution of HFMD in Guigang was analyzed by ArcGIS10.8 software and the high incidence areas was studied by kernel density analysis.The Spearman correlation analysis of meteorological factors and the number of daily HFMD cases and the study of distributed lag nonlinear model were conducted with R 4.2.0 software.Results A total of 40814 cases of HFMD were reported in Guigang from 2015 to 2019.There was a spatial aggregation of HFMD in Guigang,and the kernel density analysis showed that the high incidence areas were mainly located in Guicheng Street and Jiangnan Office.The incidence of HFMD was positively correlated with daily average temperature,daily rainfall and sunshine duration,and negatively correlated with daily average air pressure.When the temperature was 30.4℃(P95),the cumulative risk of HFMD was highest at a lag of 21 days(RR=1.49,95%CI:1.23,1.80),and when the air pressure was 995.3 hPa(P5),the cumulative risk was highest at a lag of 21 days(RR=1.56,95%CI:1.29,1.88).When the daily rainfall was 25.06 mm(P95),the cumulative risk was highest at a lag of 21 days(RR=1.43,95%CI:1.16,1.77),and when the sunshine duration was 10.3 h(P95),the cumulative risk was highest at a lag of 21 days(RR=0.48,95%CI:0.38,0.59).Conclusion High temperature,low air pressure and high rainfall can increase the risk of HFMD,while long sunshine duration can reduce the risk of HFMD,and all have a certain lag effect.This study can provide a theoretical basis for the early warning and prediction of HFMD.