灰色GM(1,1)模型下广西卫生人力资源需求预测研究

Prediction of Health Human Resource Allocation in Guangxi Based on GM(1,1) Grey Model

目的通过预测2023-2025年广西壮族自治区卫生人力资源配置情况,对广西卫生人力的构成及变化趋势进行预测,以期为广西卫生部门制定相关卫生人才政策提供参考。方法选取2012-2021年《中国卫生(健康)统计年鉴》中广西卫生人员总数、卫生技术人员数、执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数、管理人员数为原始数据,通过构建灰色GM(1,1)模型对2023-2025年广西卫生人力资源配置情况及变化趋势进行预测。结果2011-2020年广西卫生人员总数呈逐年增加的趋势,卫生技术人员占比从71.95%上涨到78.77%,执业(助理)医师占比从26.15%上涨到26.58%,注册护士占比从26.98%上涨到35.47%,管理人员占比从3.9%下降到3.5%。通过卫生人员灰色GM(1,1)预测模型X^((1))(k+1)=6329244.4213e^(0.0489k)-6045701.4213,预测2023-2025年卫生技术人员数、执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数、管理人员数年均增长率分别为7.11%、6.66%、9.85%、2.26%,医护比达1∶1.53。结论2023-2025年卫生人员总数呈现增长态势,与国内其他省份相比公平性仍有差距,应加强对护理人员及卫生管理人员配置公平性的重视,大力促进卫生事业发展。

Objective To forecast the allocation of health human resources in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2023 to 2025,the composition and changing trend of health human resources in Guangxi,so as to provide reference for the health department of Guangxi to formulate relevant health talent policies.Methods The total number of health personnel,the number of health technicians,the number of practicing(assistant)physicians,the number of registered nurses and the number of managers in Guangxi from 2012 to 2021 were selected from the"China Health Statistical Yearbook".The grey GM(1,1)model was constructed to predict the allocation of health human resources in Guangxi from 2023 to 2025.Results From 2011 to 2020,the total number of health workers increased year by year.The proportion of health technicians increased from 71.95%to 78.77%,that of practicing(assistant)physicians increased from 26.15%to 26.58%,that of registered nurses increased from 26.98%to 35.47%,and that of management personnel decreased from 3.9%to 3.5%.Through the health personnel gray GM(1,1)prediction model X^((1))(k+1)=6329244.4213e^(0.0489k)-6045701.4213,the number of health technicians,the number of practicing(assistant)physicians,the number of registered nurses,and the number of managers in 2023-2025 were predicted,the annual growth rates were 7.11%,6.66%,9.85%,and 2.26%,respectively,and the doctor-nurse ratio was 1∶1.53.Conclusion From 2023 to 2025,the total number of health personnel will increase,and there is still a gap in equity compared with other provinces in China.We should pay more attention to the fairness of the allocation of nursing and health management personnel and vigorously promote the development of health undertakings.