黄土高原人口收缩格局特征及其影响因素分析

Analysis of population shrinkage pattern and its influencing factors in Loess Plateau

人口分布是人口发展在空间上的综合体现,也是区域发展格局和协调性的重要表征。本文以黄土高原为研究对象,选取DEM(digital elevation model)、人口、人均GDP、河流和道路数据,运用人口收缩指数、核密度、空间相关性分析、GIS(geographic information system)空间分析和地理探测器等方法,研究了2013—2019年黄土高原地区人口收缩格局的特征,并探讨了其影响因素。研究表明:1)从整体来看,黄土高原人口收缩趋势明显,且空间的关联性较强,其格局基本稳定;2)从局部来看,人口集聚存在明显的区域差异,其中河谷平原地区和省会城市是人口集聚的主要区域;3)黄土高原人口在不同高程与坡度上的分布差异明显,尤其在海拔0~1500 m、坡度0°~15°的地势低平区域,人口密度较高,空间集聚趋势明显;4)人口分布受到社会经济因素和自然地理因素的综合影响,且一般会朝着社会经济条件好、交通便利的地区流动。

Population distribution is a comprehensive reflection of population development in space,and also an important indicator of regional development pattern and coordination.Taking the Loess Plateau as the research area,this paper selects DEM,population,per capita GDP,rivers and road data,and uses population shrinkage index,nuclear density,spatial correlation analysis,GIS spatial analysis and geographic detector methods to study the characteristics of population shrinkage pattern in the Loess Plateau from 2013 to 2019 and to summarize the influencing factors of population shrinkage pattern.The research shows that:1)On the whole,the population shrinkage trend of the Loess Plateau is obvious,the spatial correlation is strong,and the spatial correlation pattern is basically stable;2)Locally,there are obvious regional differences in population agglomeration,and valley plains and provincial capitals are the main areas of population agglomeration;3)The distribution of population in the Loess Plateau is obviously different at different elevations and slopes.In the low-lying areas with elevations of 0~1500 m and slopes of 0°~15°,the population density is higher and the spatial agglomeration trend is obvious;4)Population distribution is affected by a combination of socio-economic and natural geographical factors,with the population migrating to areas with good socio-economic conditions and convenient transportation.