中国菲利普斯曲线的扁平化特征与利率政策撬动

The Flattening Character of Phillips Curve in China and the Leverage of Interest Rate Policy

近年来,我国经济增长与通胀的动态路径似乎偏离了传统的菲利普斯曲线,具体表现为通货膨胀率对产出的变动越来越不敏感,即菲利普斯曲线扁平化问题。本文从非对称的角度出发解释菲利普斯曲线异化现象的微观机制,结果发现,产出的负向变动对通货膨胀的影响系数较正向变动更小,即通胀在经济下行阶段的响应弱于经济上行阶段,考虑到目前我国经济产出正处于惯性下跌趋势,该非对称影响机制才是导致菲利普斯曲线扁平化现象的根本原因。与此同时,利率政策能够显著弱化产出与通胀的非对称性,从而调整菲利普斯曲线斜率,有效干预这种非正常经济现象。本文研究结论的政策含义是,在经济下行阶段应加大稳增长的政策力度,而无须过度担心政策放松带来的通货膨胀问题,在稳增长的政策选择方面应以积极的财政政策为主,稳健的货币政策协调配合。

In recent years,the dynamic path of economic growth and inflation seems to deviate from the traditional Phillips curve,which is shown that the inflation rate is less sensitive to the change of output,namely the flattening of the Phillips curve.This paper explains the microscopic mechanism of Phillips curve alienation from the perspective of asymmetry.The results find that the negative change of output has less influence coefficient on inflation than the positive change,that is,Inflation is less responsive during the downturn than on the upside.Considering that China's economic output is in an inertial downward trend,the asymmetric influence mechanism is the fundamental cause of flattening of the Phillips curve.At the same time,interest policy can significantly weaken the asymmetry of output and inflation.Thus,we can artificially adjust the slope of the Phillips curve to effec-tively intervene in this abnormal economic phenomenon.The policy implication of this pa-per is that,in the stage of economic downturn,we should strengthen the policy to stabilize growth,without overly worrying about the inflation problem caused by policy relaxation.In terms of the policy choice to stabilize growth,we should focus on active fiscal policy and coordinate with prudent monetary policy.