多源数据融合的技术生命周期测度

Measurement of Technology Life Cycle Based on Multi-source Data Fusion

科学有效地测度技术生命周期、及时把握全球竞争态势、抓紧布局未来产业是经济社会高质量发展的关键,也是面对新型国际关系、掌握技术发展主动权的战略举措。鉴于既有技术生命周期测度方面的研究数据来源单一、设计指标不够全面,根据“基础研究—应用研究—技术推广—产业化—技术改进”这一技术发展主线,考虑除论文、专利信息外的科研项目信息、企业数量、融资情况等多源信息数据,构建包含基础研究、技术创新、科技布局、产业规模与技术改进5个维度的技术生命周期多指标测度体系,采用熵权法赋权并结合灰色关联分析法构建技术生命周期综合指数计算模型,以成熟的磷酸铁锂技术作为参考技术,绘制其生命周期演化曲线,并与常用于技术成长阶段判定的S曲线对比,考察该测度体系的可行性。结果表明,根据磷酸铁锂技术生命周期综合发展指数计算模型绘制出的磷酸铁锂技术生命周期演化曲线,可判定该技术在1997—1999年为潜伏期、1999—2007年为萌芽期、2007—2014年为成长期、2014—2022年为成熟期、2022年以后为衰退期;进一步对比分析表明,技术生命周期多指标测度体系不仅能够更加全方位动态展现技术综合发展水平、准确评估技术发展态势,更有利于在技术创新没有造成市场显著变化时实现预警决策,为企业赢得早期研发布局的时机。

Scientific and effective measurement of technology life cycle,timely grasping of global competition situation,and paying close attention to the layout of future industries are the key to high-quality economic and social development,as well as strategic measures to grasp the initiative of technology development in the face of new international relations.In view of that research data source of existing technology life cycle measurement is single and indicators are not comprehensive,this paper follows the mail line of "basic research-applied research-technology promotion-industrialization-technical improvement",adds the scientific research project information,industries numbers,funding and other multi-source data besides academic papers and patent information,builds a multi-index measurement system of technology life cycle containing five dimensions of basic research,technological innovation,technology layout,industry scale and technology improvement,and builds the technology life cycle composite index calculation model by combing the entropy weight method with grey correlation analysis method,taking lithium iron phosphate technology as the object of empirical study and drawing its life cycle evolution curve,the feasibility of the measurement system is investigated by comparing with the S curve which is commonly used in the technical growth stage.The results indicate that the technology can be judged as the incubation period in 1997-1999,germination period in 1999-2007,growth period in 2007-2014,maturity period in 2014-2022,and recession period after 2022according to the life cycle evolution curve of lithium iron phosphate technology drawn by the calculation model of lithium iron acid technology.Further comparative analysis show that,technology life cycle multi-indicator measurement system based on multi-source data can not only display technology comprehensive development level more comprehensively and dynamically and accurately assess the technology development trend,but also help enterprises win the opportunity of early RD layout when technology innovation does not cause significant change in the market.