基于地理信息技术和模糊层次分析-模糊决策试行与评价实验方法(AHP-DEMATEL)的区域大型光伏电站选址指标体系构建:以内蒙古为例

Construction of Regional Large-scale Photovoltaic Power Station Site Selection Indicator System Based on Geographic Information Technology and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Methods(AHP-DEMATEL):A Case Study of Inner Mongolia

以往关于大型光伏电站选址研究中,采用层次分析(AHP)方法的指标间相互独立,指标权重还有改进空间,同时指标间存在一定的交叉和冗余,为此,通过对在不同自然、社会条件地区建设大型光伏电站选址研究的指标进行对比和筛选,研究区域大型光伏发电站建设选址的典型指标体系。考虑到人工成本和民众接受度在区域大型光伏发电站项目建设中的重要影响,在已有主要指标基础上增设上述两个指标,构建包括资源、环境、经济、社会4个维度的区域大型光伏发电站选址评价指标体系,并以内蒙古为例,在地理信息技术(GIS)环境中采用AHP与决策试行与评价实验法(DEMATEL)对所获取的数据进行归一化处理,对有关指标赋权,从而绘制区域大型光伏发电站建设的空间适宜性分布地图,实现可视化数据分析。在综合考虑辐射强度、日照时间、坡度以及经济水平等因素后得出,选址在内蒙古西南部的适宜度高于东北部,其中最适宜地区位于巴丹吉林、腾格里、乌兰布和沙漠及毛乌素沙地;而腾格里沙漠西侧及巴丹吉林沙漠等地基础设施建设薄弱、交通不便,应稍后发展。研究结果与内蒙古已建成的大型集中式光伏发电站分布情况相符,模型的可靠性得以验证。

The indicators used in previous research on site selection for large-scale photovoltaic power stations based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method are mutually independent,and there is room for improvement in the weighting of indicators,at the same time,there are certain overlaps and redundancies among the indicators.Therefore,a comparative analysis and selection of research indicators for the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power stations in different natural and social conditions are conducted,to establish a typical indicator system for regional largescale photovoltaic power station site selection.Considering the significant impact of labor costs and public acceptance on the construction of regional large-scale photovoltaic power station projects,two additional indicators are added on the basis of the existing primary indicators,and a comprehensive indicator system for regional large-scale photovoltaic power station site evaluation is constructed,including four dimensions:resources,environment,economy,and society.Taking Inner Mongolia as an example,the data obtained are normalized by using AHP and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL) methods in a geographic information system(GIS) environment,and the indicators are weighted to generate a spatial suitability distribution map for the construction of regional large-scale photovoltaic power stations,achieving visual data analysis.After comprehensive consideration of factors such as radiation intensity,sunshine duration,slope,and economic level,it finds that the suitability in the southwestern part of Inner Mongolia is higher than the northeastern part,with the most suitable areas located in the Badain Jaran,Tengger,Ulan Buh,and Mu Us deserts;however,the infrastructure and transportation in the western part of the Tengger Desert and the Badain Jaran Desert are relatively weak,and further development should be carried out later.The research results are consistent with the distribution of existing large-scale centralized photovoltaic power stations in Inner Mongolia,verifying the reliability of the model.