中国经济“去工业化”现象及其动因研究

Study on the Phenomenon of“Deindustrialization”of Chinese Economy and Its Motivation

中国经济近年来的“去工业化”现象引起了学术界广泛关注。对此,利用世界投入产出表数据,对这种现象背后的影响因素进行定量分析,并得到以下结论:(1)对于中国经济整体而言,供给层面和需求层面相关因素变化均会对制造业比重的下降产生影响,前者是次要因素,后者是主要因素;(2)近年来中国制造业占比之所以加速下降,与中间投入结构和需求结构变化对其产生的负面影响加重有关,是两种因素叠加的结果;(3)在制造业内部,不同类型制造业占比在下降趋势和驱动因素上存在明显差异;(4)在导致中国经济“去工业化”的各大因素中,出口等外部因素是周期性的,而近年来加速“去工业化”现象则主要是由内因所引起的。在此基础上,从完善制造业创新体系,加快引导我国制造业向绿色化和低碳化发展转型,进一步扩大对外开放并优化产业空间布局,优化制造业内部结构,加强制造业与其他产业的融合等方面,对中国制造业高质量发展提出了相关建议。

In recent years,the phenomenon of“deindustrialization”of Chinese economy has aroused extensive attention in the academic circle.In this regard,using the data of the world input-output table,this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the influencing factors behind this phenomenon,and draws the following conclusions:(1)For China's economy as a whole,the changes of relevant factors at both the supply level and the demand level have an impact on the decline of the proportion of manufacturing,among which the former is a secondary factor and the later is a major factor;(2)The accelerated decline of China's manufacturing share in recent years is related to the aggravating negative impact of the change of intermediate input structure and demand structure,which is the result of the superposition of the two factors;(3)Within the manufacturing industry,there are significant differences in the proportion of different types of manufacturing,whether it is the declining trend or related driving factors;(4)Among the major factors leading to the“deindustrialization”of China's economy,the external factors including export are cyclical,and the accelerated“deindustrialization”phenomenon in recent years is mainly caused by internal factors.Finally,some suggestions for the high quality development of China's manufacturing industry are provided based on the analysis results.