四川省新型城镇化与城乡收入差距时空演化及关联性分析

Spatiotemporal changes and correlation of the new urbanization and urban-rural income gap in Sichuan Province

新型城镇化作为健全区域协调发展体制机制的重要举措,对破解城乡及地区间发展不平衡问题、促进经济高质量发展有重要意义。论文以四川省为研究对象,运用空间自相关分析方法、空间计量模型、门限面板模型,分析2009—2019年新型城镇化和城乡收入差距的时空演化情况,揭示二者的关联关系,检验分析城乡收入差距的其他影响因素。结果显示:(1) 2009—2019年,四川省新型城镇化水平逐年上升,城乡收入差距逐年缩小,各年度城乡收入差距均具有显著的空间关联性,其低值区域主要集聚在成渝经济走廊上,其高值区域主要集聚在川西及东北部秦巴山区。(2)新型城镇化对城乡收入差距存在非线性影响,呈倒“U”型关系,主要原因是新型城镇化与农业现代化的不协调、不同步,当农业现代化水平跨越门槛值后,新型城镇化才会由扩大转为抑制城乡收入差距。(3)地区经济不平衡程度、科技创新水平和人力资本水平也是城乡收入差距的显著影响因素。研究结果可为积极稳妥推动新型城镇化、有效缩小城乡收入差距提供理论依据。

As an important measure to improve the institutions and mechanisms for coordinated regional development,the new urbanization is of great significance for reversing the unbalanced development between urban and rural areas and between different regions,and promoting high-quality economic development.Taking Sichuan Province as the research object and adopting the spatial autocorrelation analysis method,the spatial econometric model,and the threshold panel model,this study analyzed the spatiotemporal change of the new urbanization and urban-rural income gap,discussed the relationship between them,and verified other influencing factors of urban-rural income gap.The conclusions are as follows:1)In 2009-2019,the level of new urbanization was rising year by year,and annual urban-rural income gap were continuously narrowing.Urban-rural income gap in each year showed significant spatial autocorrelation,with the low value areas concentrated in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic corridor,and the high value areas concentrated in western Sichuan and the Qinba Mountains area in the northeast.2)The new urbanization had a nonlinear impact on urban-rural income gap,showing an inverted U-shaped relationship,the main reason of which was that the new urbanization and agricultural modernization were not coordinated and synchronized.Only when the level of agricultural modernization crossed the threshold,would the new urbanization curb the widening of urban-rural income gap.3)Degree of regional economic imbalance,scientific and technological innovation,and human capital level were also significant factors that affect urban-rural income gap.The research results may provide theoretical support to steadily promote new urbanization and to narrow the urban-rural income gap effectively.