中亚五国水-能源-粮食-生态耦合关系及时空分异

Coupling relationship and spatiotemporal differentiation of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus in five Central Asian countries

针对中亚复杂的跨界水问题,从地区和国家层面基于系统耦合视角开展水-能源-粮食-生态(WEFE)系统协调性研究。首先构建了WEFE耦合协调评价指标体系,然后运用耦合协调度模型对中亚地区WEFE协调发展水平及其时空演变特征进行定量评价。结果表明:(1)近20 a中亚地区WEFE系统耦合度保持较高水平,耦合协调度呈现缓慢增长趋势但处于勉强协调;(2)各国耦合协调发展水平差异较大,哈萨克斯坦耦合协调水平最优但处于初级协调,塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦为勉强协调,土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦为濒临失调;(3)对比多系统的发展水平发现,塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦粮食存在明显滞后,土库曼斯坦属于水资源滞后型,哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦属于能源滞后型,子系统间未能达到良好匹配,一定程度上影响地区协调发展。研究成果可为中亚地区的WEFE协同发展及国家间跨界河流开发合作提供决策依据。

To shed light on the complex transboundary water problems in Central Asia,a study on water-energy-food-ecology(WEFE) system coordination was conducted from the regional and national levels based on a system coupling perspective.First,the WEFE evaluation index system for coupling and coordination was constructed,and then the coupling coordination degree model was applied to quantitatively evaluate the level of coordinated development of WEFE and its spatial and temporal evolution in Central Asia.The results show that:(1) In the last 20 years,the coupling degree of WEFE in Central Asia basically maintained a high level,and the coupling coordination degree showed a slow growth trend but was barely coordination.(2) The development level of coupling coordination varied greatly among countries,and the coupling coordination level of Kazakhstan was the best,albeit in primary coordination.Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan barely performed coordination,and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were on the brink of misalignment.(3) Comparing the development levels of multiple systems,it was found that there was a significant lag in the food system in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan,a lag in the water system in Turkmenistan,and a lag in the energy system in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,which failed to achieve a good match among systems and affected the regional coordinated development to a certain extent.The results can provide a basis for decision-making on the synergistic development of WEFE in Central Asia and transboundary river development cooperation among countries.