基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型的南昌市碳储量时空演变研究

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Carbon Storage in Nanchang City Based on PLUS Model and InVEST

以1990-2020年南昌市土地利用数据为基础,利用InVEST模型碳储量模块与PLUS模型耦合,对1990-2030年南昌市碳储量的时空分布进行分析。结果表明:南昌市30 a间的碳储量从4.09×10^(7)t减少至3.80×10^(7)t,碳密度从56.86 t/hm^(2)减少到52.89 t/hm^(2),碳储量和碳密度均呈现连续下降趋势;南昌市碳储量的空间分布格局较为稳定,呈现西北和东南高,西南和东北低的空间格局;土地利用程度不断加强,但土地利用对南昌市碳储量脆弱性呈负向影响;多情景模式下,生态保护情景可有效降低碳储量的减少量,该模式相比自然发展情景的碳储量减少量降低了45.7%。研究结果可为南昌市基于碳储量的生态保护和土地利用规划提供参考。

Based on the land use data of Nanchang City from 1990 to 2020,the temporal distribution of carbon storage in Nanchang City from 1990 to 2030 was analyzed by coupling the InVEST model carbon storage module with the PLUS model.The results show that the carbon storage of Nanchang City in 30 years decreases from 4.09×10^(7)t to 3.80×10^(7)t,and the carbon density decreases from 56.86 t/hm^(2)to 52.89 t/hm^(2).Both carbon storage and carbon density showed a continuous downward trend.The spatial distribution pattern of carbon storage in Nanchang City is relatively stable,showing a spatial pattern of high in the northwest and southeast and low in the southwest and northeast.The degree of land use continues to strengthen,and land use has a negative impact on the vulnerability of Nanchang’s carbon storage.Under the multi scenario model,the ecological protection scenario can effectively decrease the reduction of carbon storage,which is 45.7%lower than the natural development scenario.The research results can provide reference for ecological protection and land use planning based on carbon storage in Nanchang City.