中国水-能-粮协调度测度及差异性优化调控

Coordination degree and differential optimizing of water-energy-food system in China

针对目前水资源-能源-粮食(Water-Energy-Food,WEF)系统协调度研究中存在的不足,构建了中国省际WEF系统协调度评价指标体系,采用综合评价模型及力学均衡模型对1997~2019年30个省(直辖市、自治区)的WEF协调度进行测度,并针对各类型区提出了相应的优化调整措施。研究结果表明:①研究期内,中国水资源系统、能源系统及粮食系统的评价指数均呈上升态势,东、中、西三大区域各系统的评价指数与全国变化趋势基本一致;各系统评价指数在空间分布上存在差异。②就协调类型而言,东部地区与中部地区除个别年份以外,其状态类型分布情况与全国状态类型分布相对一致,而西部地区则除个别年份以外均处于基本协调状态。③研究时段内,中国30个省(直辖市、自治区)出现高水资源系统-低粮食系统类型的次数最高,达到189次,占比27.4%,而高能源系统-低粮食系统的类型出现次数最低,仅25次,占比3.6%。基于研究结论,可针对各类型区的特点提出相应的优化调控措施,为促进中国WEF系统协调发展提供理论依据。

Aiming at inadequate studies on coordination degree of water-energy-food system(WEF)at present,we constructed a WEF system coordination evaluation index system,and measured the WEF coordination of 30 provincial regions in China from 1997 to 2019 using a comprehensive evaluation model and a mechanistic equilibrium model,and proposed corresponding optimization and adjustment measures for different types of regions.The results show that①The evaluation indices of China′s water resources system,energy system and food system all show an increasing trend during the study period,and the evaluation indices of each system in eastern China,central China and western China are basically consistent with the national change trend;there are differences in the spatial distribution of the evaluation indices of each system.②As for the coordination types,the distribution of state types in eastern China and central China is relatively consistent with the distribution of state types of whole China except for a few years,while the western China is in a basic coordination state except for a few years.③During the study period,high water system-low food system type in 30 provincial regions of China occurred the most,189 times,accounting for 27.4%,while the high energy system-low food system types occurred the least,only 25 times,accounting for 3.6%.The corresponding optimal regulation measures were proposed with the characteristics of the type area.