河流可持续性评价指标体系与方法研究

Study on index system and method of river sustainability evaluation

为科学评价河流可持续性并识别其主要制约因子,从水安全、水资源、水生态、水环境、水经济、水文化6个方面选取22个指标构建河流可持续性评价指标体系及模型。通过AHP法赋权并识别主要表征因子,引入Fuzzy模糊数学和秩和比(RSR)法改进TOPSIS模型,提出可持续性水平评价方法,并以2010~2019年渭河陕西段为例,分析了河流可持续性水平随时间的变化情况,以敏感性指数SI探究了不同时期河流可持续性对指标变化的敏感程度。结果表明:①渭河陕西段可持续性主要表征因子为径流调蓄能力和水生生物完整指数;②总体来看,渭河陕西段可持续性水平整体为逐年上升趋势,等级从初步可持续(2010年)提高至较可持续(2019年);③不同年份渭河陕西段可持续性的主要敏感因子有所差异,整体对堤防防洪标准达标率I 2和富营养化指数I 11的波动敏感程度较大。研究结果验证了河流可持续性指标评价方法的合理性,可为流域可持续发展和水资源管理提供借鉴。

In order to scientifically evaluate the river sustainability and identify its main restrictive factors,22 indicators were selected from 6 aspects:water security,water resources,water ecology,water environment,water economy and water culture,so as to construct an evaluation index system and model for river sustainability evaluation.Through weighting and identifying the main characterization factors by AHP method,introducing Fuzzy mathematics and Rank-sum ratio(RSR)method to improve TOPSIS model,weput forward the evaluation method of sustainability level.Taking Shaanxi section of Weihe River from 2010 to 2019 as an example,this paper analyzed the change of river sustainability level with time,and explored the sensitivity of river sustainability to index change in different periods with sensitivity index SI.The results showed that:①The main characterization factors of the sustainability of Weihe River in Shaanxi Province were runoff storage capacity and aquatic organism integrity index;②The overall sustainability level of the Shaanxi section of Weihe River had an upward trend year by year,and the grade has increased from preliminary sustainability(2010)to relatively sustainability(2019);③The main sensitive factors of sustainability in the Shaanxi section of Weihe River were different in different years,and the overall sensitivity to the fluctuation of flood control standard compliance rate I 2 and eutrophication index I 11 were relatively large.The research results verified the rationality of the evaluation method of river sustainability index which can provide reference for the sustainable development of river basins and water resources management.