ROSE2.0在黔西南4·14强对流天气中的应用分析

Application Analysis of ROSE 2.0 in the Strong Convective Weather on April 14th in Southwest Guizhou

受高空槽、切变线、静止锋、弱冷空气、西南急流、地面辐合线影响,2022年4月14日黔西南州出现大范围强对流天气。该文对此次过程中ROSE2.0应用进行检验分析,得出以下结论:(1)过程第1阶段对流强度偏弱;第2阶段超级单体或强多单体风暴发展和成熟,对流以大冰雹、8级雷暴大风、40 mm以下短时强降水为主;第3阶段列车效应最明显,风暴移速较快,对流以8~11级雷暴大风、中冰雹、40~60 mm短时强降水为主。(2)ROSE2.0与本地雷达软件相比,大冰雹时CR基本一致,但VIL、HI偏小,ET偏大;ROSE2.0与实际理论值相比,VIL值明显偏低,ET、HI偏大;雷暴大风时低层径向速度ROSE2.0比本地的要小,但中高层偏大;短时强降水时,ROSE2.0小时雨强估计值比实际值偏小。

Affected by the upper trough,shear line,stationary front,weak cold air,southwest jet,and ground convergence line,a large-scale severe convective weather occurred in Southwest Guizhou on April 14,2022.The application of ROSE2.0 in the process is tested and analyzed in this paper.The conclusions are as follows:(1)the convection intensity in the first stage of the process is weak;in the second stage,supercell or strong multicell storms develop and mature,and the convection is dominated by heavy hail,magnitude 8 thunderstorm gales,and short-term heavy rainfall below 40 mm;in the third stage,the train effect is the most obvious,the storm moves faster,and the convection is dominated by magnitude 8~11 thunderstorm gales,moderate hail,and 40~60 mm short-term heavy rainfall.(2)Compared with the local radar software,ROSE2.0 has basically the same CR during heavy hail,but the VIL and HI are smaller,and ET is larger;compared with the actual theoretical value,ROSE2.0 has a significantly lower VIL value and a higher ET and HI values;during thunderstorm gales,the radial velocity ROSE2.0 at the lower level is smaller than that at the local level,but it is larger at the middle and upper levels;during short-term heavy rainfall,the estimated hourly rainfall intensity of ROSE2.0 is smaller than the actual value.