多模式降水资料在贵州的检验分析

Test Analysis of Multi-model Precipitation Data in Guizhou

该文检验了2020年3月—2021年2月ECMWF和GRAPES以及中央台格点产品(以下简称SCMOC)和省台格点产品(以下简称SPCC)4种降水预报产品未来5 d逐24 h在贵州的预报质量,结论如下:(1)ECMWF和SCMOC与实况的相关系数最高,SCMOC和SPCC预报降水的变化幅度较观测偏大,而GRAPES预报降水的变化幅度较观测明显偏小。(2)SCMOC的晴雨预报准确率最高,除在72 h预报时效SPCC的准确率略高于SCMOC外,其余预报时效SPCC准确率均低于SCMOC,表明SPCC的订正能力需要进一步提升。(3)在小雨量级,4种降水预报产品的TS评分相差不大,ECMWF和GRAPES的ETS评分明显低于SCMOC和SPCC,其中GRAPES的TS评分在5个预报时效内均高于ECMWF。在中雨量级,前3个预报时效内ECMWF的TS和ETS评分均高于其他3种产品,ECMWF在5个预报时效内预报有降水的次数大于实况出现的降水次数,但空报次数并不是最多的;在后2个预报时效内,SCMOC的TS和ETS评分均是最高的,但与其他产品相差不大。在大雨量级,24 h和96 h预报时效ECMWF的TS和ETS评分均最高,而在48 h、72 h、120 h预报时效SCMOC的TS和ETS评分最高。在暴雨及以上量级,前3个时效内SPCC的TS和ETS评分均最高,且48 h的TS评分空间分布也是最优的,表明SPCC对暴雨及以上量级在前3个预报时效内订正能力较好。

From March 2020 to February 2021,this paper examines the precipitation forecasting products of ECMWF and GRAPES,as well as the central grid point product(hereinafter referred to as SCMOC)and the provincial grid point product(hereinafter referred to as SPCC),in Guizhou every 24 hours in the next 5 days.The prediction quality is as follows:(1)ECMWF and SCMOC have the highest correlation coefficient with the actual situation.The variation range of precipitation predicted by SCMOC and SPCC is larger than that of observation,while the variation range of precipitation predicted by GRAPES is obviously smaller than that of observation.(2)SCMOC has the highest accuracy rate of rain or shine.Except that the accuracy rate of forecast aging SPCC at 72 hours is slightly higher than that of SCMOC,the accuracy of other forecast aging SPCC is lower than that of SCMOC,indicating that the correction ability of SPCC needs to be further improved.(3)At the light rainfall level,the TS scores of the four precipitation forecast products have little difference.The ETS scores of ECMWF and GRAPES are significantly lower than those of SCMOC and SPCC,and the TS scores of GRAPES are higher than those of ECMWF in the five forecast time periods.In the moderate rainfall scale,the TS and ETS scores of ECMWF in the first three forecast periods are higher than those of the other three,and the number of precipitations predicted by ECMWF in the five forecast periods is greater than the actual number of precipitations,but the number of empty reports is not the most.In the last two forecast time periods,the TS and ETS scores of SCMOC are both the highest,but they are not much different from others.At the heavy rainfall level,the TS and ETS scores of the 24 h and 96 h forecast aging ECMWF were the highest,while the 48 h,72 h and 120 h forecast aging SCMOC had the highest TS and ETS scores.For heavy rain and above,the TS and ETS scores of SPCC are the highest in the first three time periods,and the spatial distribution of TS scores in 48 h is also the best,indicating that SPCC is revised for heavy rain and above in the first three forecast time periods.Ability is better.