中国育龄人群生育潜力影响因素的随机实验研究

An Experimental Conjoint Analysis of Fertility Potential among Reproductive-aged Chinese People

文章利用2021年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)搭载的联合分析随机实验数据,通过分析育龄人群对虚拟情境下他人生育潜力的评估探讨了生育规范的潜在差异和影响机制,并考察了其人群异质性。研究发现,个体对生育规范的认知具有可变性。经济资源对二孩与三孩生育潜力均有显著的促进作用,生育在当代社会呈现出明显的消费品属性。照料资源的可及性有助于提升生育潜力,其中有长辈提供照料支持对二孩和三孩生育潜力的刺激效应分别约相当于家庭年收入增加12.5万元和6.29万元;低价的市场化托育服务对二孩生育潜力的提升作用均相当于家庭年收入增加13.86万元,但对三孩生育潜力而言,低价公立托育服务的提升效应明显高于低价私立托育服务,二者分别相当于家庭年收入增加8.87万元和6.61万元。性别偏好在生育潜力评估中的影响已不再显著,反映了传统生育规范的弱化。此外,研究表明,不同性别、受教育程度和生育意愿的育龄人群对经济资源、家庭照料与社会照料资源的偏好略有差异。文章认为,未来中国的生育行为可能因社会经济特征而呈现明显的分化,生育支持政策需要重点加强经济资源与社会照料资源的配套支持。

Based on the experimental design of conjoint analysis in the 2021 Chinese General Social Survey,this study explores fertility norms by estimating the causal effects of social determinants on fertility potential among Chinese people aged between 18 and 50 years old.The heterogeneous effects of the determinants are also estimated.The results reveal the variability of fertility potential across contexts.Economic resources significantly increase fertility potential,implying that fertility takes a stronger connotation of consumption in China.Fertility potential is also significantly increased by the availability of childcare resources.In terms of stimulating the second-child and third-child fertility potential,childcare provided by parents and parents-in-law is equivalent to a 125 and 62.9 thousand yuan increase in annual household income.The stimulating effect of both low-cost public and private childcare services on the second-child fertility potential is equivalent to an increase in annual household income of 138.6 thousand yuan.In contrast,public childcare is rated higher than private childcare in improving the third-child fertility potential,with low-cost public and private childcare services equivalent to an increase in annual household income of 88.7 and 66.1 thousand yuan,respectively.In addition,the preferences for economic resources,family childcare,and market childcare differed slightly by gender,education level,and fertility intention.However,son preference has no significant effect on fertility potential,demonstrating the weakened traditional fertility norm in China.In light of China's low fertility today,our study suggests that childbearing will become more diversified by socioeconomic status.Future fertility-supportive policies need to focus more on improving economic and market childcare resources.