“新南向政策”背景下台商海外直接投资动向研究--以东南亚为中心的考察

Study on the New Trend in China Taiwan Direct Investment Overseas under the Background"New Southward Policy"--Focusing on Southeast Asia

“新南向政策”真的是“新南向”?亦或是“新难向”?文章选2016-2020年台商直接投资数据为基础,采用空间分析法,把握台商海外直接投资空间分布与动向,结合社会资本理论、比较优势理论等诠释内在逻辑。研究表明:第一,台商海外直接投资以亚洲为重点,亚洲地区吸引台商直接投资基本形成聚焦东南亚地区、关注东亚、拓展南亚的空间分布特征,东南亚地区大致呈现出由南向北延伸,并以越南为重点的空间分布格局。第二,“新南向政策”对台商海外投资的实际影响微弱,并未改变祖国内地是台商岛外投资的主流,但其隐藏着中国台湾当局企图加强与东南亚地区民间互动、文化交流及技术支援等具有提升或改善台湾地区所谓“国际地位”的政治阴谋。第三,在时刻警惕美、日及印等所主导的“印太战略”及中美贸易战、新冠肺炎疫情蔓延等不确定因素同时,还要充分发挥“一带一路”倡议、RCEP等区域经贸合作机制,进一步的巩固和发展与周边国家的关系,进而防止“台独”势力勾连外部势力。

what is the"New Southward Policy"?Based on the relevant data of China Taiwan economic statistics monthly report,this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution of China Taiwan businessmen's overseas direct investment under the background of"New Southward Policy"by using Spatial analysis,and explores the spatial distribution characteristics and internal logic of overseas investment from the perspective of globalization and Regionalization Based on social capital theory and comparative advantage theory.The results show that:first,the direct investment of China Taiwan businessmen is mainly in Asia.The attraction of China Taiwan direct investment in Asia mainly forms the spatial distribution characteristics of focusing on Southeast Asia,then South Asia and East Asia The spread to the East(Vietnam),and eventually formed a spatial distribution pattern with Vietnam as the focus.Second,The"new southward policy"has a weak practical impact on China Taiwan businessmen's overseas investment,and has not changed that the China' mainland is the mainstream of China Taiwan's investment.They should pay more attention to the political conspiracy of China Taiwan authorities to enhance or improve the so-called"international status"of China Taiwan,such as the interaction between China Taiwan authorities and the people in Southeast Asia,cultural exchange and technical support.Third,being vigilant against the"Indo-Pacific Strategy"and China-US trade frictions,Chinese government should make full use of the BRI,RCEP and other regional cooperation mechanism to further consolidate and develop its relations with neighboring countries,and to prevent China Taiwan independence forces from colluding with external forces.