运力驱动下的运费市场

Capacity-driven volatility

跨太平洋航线即将面临年度合约价格谈判,市场观察人士认为集运业不得不面对新的现实,即“运力过剩导致运费波动”。一年一度的泛太平洋海运大会(TPM)是跨太平洋航线最重要的行业盛会。近日在美国长滩举行的“2023年泛太平洋海运大会”(TPM23)上,对跨太平洋航线服务合同的讨论成为会议的一个焦点话题。3600名与会者带来的各类信息为集运市场年度合同谈判增添了各种色彩,如商品采购是否从中国转移,美国西海岸正在进行的劳工谈判,等等。总体来看,此次长滩会议的气氛是乐观的,尽管跨太平洋航线即将面临年度合约价格谈判,市场观察人士认为集运业不得不面对新的现实,即“运力过剩导致运费波动”。

With trans-Pacific service contract discussions dominating the sidelines of the Journal of Commerce’s TPM23 at the end of February,the various messages the 3,600 attendees heard from the stage colored the contract talks,hitting on such issues as the sourcing shift away from China and the ongoing US West Coast labor negotiations.The mood in Long Beach was generally upbeat,with the industry excited to get together despite the specter of a rate war in the trans-Pacific and the sinking suspicion the industry was slinking into a new reality best captured by the phrase“volatility due to overcapacity.”