浙江省县域碳排放的时空格局与影响因素研究

Study on Spatial-temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of County Carbon Emissions in Zhejiang Province

基于2014~2020年浙江省62个县域碳排放及社会经济数据,针对浙江省县域碳排放的空间相关性与异质性进行分级。通过全域空间自相关检验分析县域碳排放的空间依赖性与时空演变特征,通过局域空间自相关检验分析县域碳排放的空间集聚性。采用空间误差STIRPAT模型对浙江省县域碳排放影响因素进行研究。结果显示:浙江省县域碳排放总量波动但总体呈增长趋势,县域碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性且空间集聚态势相对稳定;高—高集聚类型县域主要集中在省内东北部地区,低—低集聚类型县域则主要集中在省内西南部地区;县域碳排放的空间相关性和集聚性符合地理极化效应假说,县域人均GDP与碳排放还未呈现“脱钩”关系,产业规模化发展与科技创新所带来的低碳效应尚未显现;单个县域碳排放受相邻县域碳排放的正向影响,且县域之间其他影响碳排放的社会经济因素也具有空间相关性。因此,实现区域协调发展与实现“双碳”目标的政策除了从产业方面布局之外,还应注重从空间视角动态综合考虑。

Based on the carbon emissions and social-economic data of 62 counties in Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2020,the spatial dependence and agglomeration of county-level carbon emissions are analyzed through the spatial auto-correlation test and local spatial auto-correlation test respectively.According to the spatial-temporal characteristics of county-level carbon emissions revealed by the index of Moran′s I and Local Moran’s I,the spatial error STIRPAT model is used to study the influencing factors of county-level carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province,China.The main results are as follows:(1)The total amount of county-level carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province fluctuates and shows a growth trend.(2)County-level carbon emissions have a significant spatial correlation,and the spatial agglomeration trend is relatively stable,which is consistent with the hypothesis of the geographical polarization effect.(3)High-high agglomeration counties are concentrated in the northeast of Zhejiang Province,while low-low agglomeration counties are mainly in the southwest.(4)The relationship between county per capital GDP and carbon emissions has not been"decoupled";the low-carbon effect brought by large-scale industrial development as well as scientific and technological innovation has not yet appeared.(5)The carbon emissions of a single county is positively affected by the carbon emissions of the neighboring counties,and other social-economic factors affecting carbon emissions among counties also have a spatial correlation.Therefore,the policy of realizing regional coordinated development and the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals should not only focus on industrial layout,but also pay attention to dynamic and comprehensive consideration from a spatial perspective.