国际秩序转型背景下的俄罗斯“东转战略”:权力格局、主导规范与制度安排

Russia's Pivot to East Strategy under the Background of International Order Transformation:Power Pattern,Dominant Norm,and Institutional Arrangement

“东转战略”是俄罗斯的重要对外战略。本文从国际秩序的视角出发,分析国际秩序转型对于“东转战略”的重要影响。国际秩序是一个由物质要素和观念要素共同构成的概念,其主要由权力格局、主导规范和制度安排三者组成。当前国际秩序转型表现为权力格局方面“复杂两极”的出现,主导规范转型体现为政经合一观念和新兴治理观念的兴起以及制度安排方面多元化、竞争性多边制度的出现。这些变化促使俄罗斯力图通过“东转战略”来寻求构建有利于自身利益的国际秩序,加强与亚太国家在货币金融和高科技领域的合作以及进一步加强支撑“东转战略”的多边合作机制。与此同时,俄罗斯也需要面对远东地区由权力格局转型引发的安全风险,由主导规范转型引发的能源合作变化以及由制度安排转型引发的多边合作对接等问题。在国际秩序转型的背景下,中俄可以在区域安全合作、金融和高科技合作、绿色发展对接乃至多边合作平台建设方面开展互动,进而维护中俄新型大国关系,构建人类命运共同体。

Pivot to East Strategy is an important foreign strategy of Russia.From the perspective of international order,this article analyzes the important impact of the transformation of international order on Pivot to East Strategy.The international order is a concept composed of material and conceptual elements,which mainly consists of power pattern,dominant norms,and institutional arrangements.The current transformation of the international order is characterized by the emergence of"complex bipolar"in terms of power patterns,the rise of the concept of integration of politics and economy and the emerging concept of governance in terms of dominant norms,and the emergence of a pluralistic and competitive multilateral system in terms of institutional arrangements.These changes have prompted Russia to seek to build an international order favorable to its own interests through the Pivot to East Strategy,to strengthen cooperation with Asia-Pacific countries in the monetary,financial and high-tech fields,and to further strengthen the multilateral cooperation mechanisms that support Pivot to East Strategy.At the same time,Russia also needs to face the security risks arising from the transition of power patterns in the Far East,the changes in energy cooperation arising from the transition of dominant norms,and the dovetailing of multilateral cooperation arising from the transition of institutional arrangements.In the context of the transformation of the international order,China and Russia can interact in regional security cooperation,financial and high-tech cooperation,green development and multilateral cooperation platform construction,thus maintaining the new type of major-country relationship between China and Russia and building a community with a shared future for mankind.