后疫情时代2030年可持续发展议程的驱动系统:冲击与重构

The Driving System of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the Post-Pandemic Era:Impact and Reconfiguration

联合国《2030年可持续发展议程》(简称《2030年议程》)的核心目标在于促进国际发展模式转型升级,而实现此目标需要物质能力提升、制度动力和理念革新三元动力机制的协同驱动。由于《2030年议程》驱动系统具有复合性,其对国际环境变化具有一定的抵御和适应能力。在新冠疫情的冲击下,各国物质能力有所下降,国际合作氛围也趋于恶化,导致《2030年议程》驱动系统韧性减弱,进而使负面变化通过系统效应得到放大。但是,在外部刺激下,复合系统中的行为体并非无所作为,而是通过积极创新来适应恶化的外部环境。当前,新科技加速发展、新国际领导结构初见雏形、绿色复苏理念广泛传播,这都为后疫情时代《2030年议程》驱动系统的修复和重构奠定了基础。

The central aim of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is to improve the international development model.This requires coordinated mechanisms of the material capacity enhancement,institutional cooperation,and development idea innovation.The driving system of the 2030 Agenda is a complex system,offering resilience and adaptability in the face of changes in the international environment.However,the Covid-19 pandemic has caused a decline in material capacity and cooperation among countries,leading to a weakening of the driving system's resilience and amplifying negative changes through system effects.Despite this,actors in the complex system are adapting to the deteriorating external environment through active innovation.The current advancements in science and technology,the emergence of a new international leadership structure,and the growing popularity of the concept of green recovery have laid the foundation for restoring and reconstructing the driving system in the postepidemic era.