全球储备资产:历史趋势、形成机制和中国启示

International Reserves:Historical Trend,Evolutionary Patterns and Implications for China

基于100多个经济体的储备资产微观数据,本文对全球储备资产的结构特征进行了系统研究。研究结果表明:伴随着国际货币体系的发展演进,全球储备资产规模不断攀升;储备资产持有者集中度稳中趋降,黄金与非传统货币计价资产份额不断上升;“中心”和“外围”国家储备资产结构存在明显差异,金融账户对储备资产形成的贡献度不断提升。浮动汇率制度、货币国际化无法替代储备资产的功能,不应过分关注储备资产的短期账面收益,而要全面考虑其在促进经济增长、维护金融稳定等方面的基础性作用。我国应加强顶层设计与统筹规划,逐步探寻一套适合中国国情、兼顾收益与风险的储备资产管理长效机制。

Based on data from over 100 economies,this paper examines the structural and evolutionary features of international reserves.The results show that with the development of the international monetary system,international reserves continued to rise,the degree of investor concentration declined,and the share of gold and non-traditional currency-denominated reserves increased.There was a clear difference between"Central"and"Peripheral"countries in terms of reserve asset structure.Floating exchange rate and currency internationalization cannot replace the functions of international reserves.The accumulation of international reserves played a very important role in promoting economic growth and maintaining financial stability.China should gradually explore a set of long-term mechanisms of reserve assets management,which is suitable for China's current situation and takes into account both benefits and risks.