跨境资本流动的新特征、新风险及其政策建议

New Features,New Risks and Policy Recommendations of Cross-Border Capital Flows

2008年全球金融危机对世界经济金融格局产生了深刻影响,危机以后全球跨境资本流动的规模、结构、参与主体和行为特征都出现了结构性变化,呈现出跨境银行信贷流入下降、证券投资流入上升,以及非银行金融部门重要性上升等新特征。新特征的出现带来了新的风险和挑战,各经济体,尤其是新兴经济体面临债券类证券投资流入占比上升引起的金融不稳定性增加、非银行金融部门重要性增加带来的金融脆弱性上升,以及外币债券规模上升带来的货币错配等风险。跨境资本流动是输入性金融风险的重要传导渠道,在当前复杂的国际环境下,厘清跨境资本流动在全球及中国出现的新特征和新风险,对输入性金融风险的防范和化解具有重要现实意义。

The 2008 financial crisis has had a profound impact on the global economic and financial landscape.Since the crisis,there has been a structural change in global cross-border capital flows in terms of volume,composition,main participants and behavioral patterns.The new features of capital flows include a declining share of cross-border banking loans,a rising share of portfolio inflows,and an increase in the importance of the non-banking financial sector.These new features pose new risks and challenges for economies,especially for emerging market economies.The new risks include increased financial instability caused by the rising share of portfolio bond inflows,increased financial fragility due to the rising status of the nonbanking financial sector,and currency mismatch risks arising from the rise in the scale of foreign currency bonds.Cross-border capital flows are an important transmission channel for imported financial risks.In the current complex and severe international environment,clarifying the new features and risks of cross-border capital flows in the world and in China is of great practical significance for preventing and resolving imported financial risks.