“双控”和“双碳”目标下中国省域能源消费指标分配

China’s Provincial Energy Consumption Quotas Allocation Based on the Energy Consumption Double Control,Carbon Peak and Neutrality Goals

在能源消耗“双控”向碳排放“双控”转变的背景下,基于2016—2020年省级面板数据,应用非期望产出的动态ZSG-SBM模型,在能源消耗总量既定的条件下调整分配了各省份能源消费量,分析了调整前后能源消耗强度的变化情况,进一步基于2030年中国省级GDP总量、能源消费量、二氧化碳和污染物排放量的预测数据,应用加入了公平指数的ZSG-SBM模型,优化了2030年中国各省份能源消费、二氧化碳、污染物排放配额。研究发现,在能源效率趋向前沿面的情况下,西部地区新疆、内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃等9个省份减少了能源消费配额,东部地区山东、广东、江苏、浙江等8个省份增加了配额,调整配额后,全国各省份能源配置效率得到明显改善,能源消费强度显著下降;而在效率优先兼顾公平的情景下,东部地区各省份能源消费配额减少,中部和西部地区各省份能源消费指标配额增加,碳排放量和污染物排放量恰恰相反,从而西部地区获得更多能源消费量指标配额,更少碳排放和污染物指标配额,西部地区面临更大的减排压力。

The energy consumption per unit of GDP will decline significantly in China by 2030,in the meantime,China’s carbon emissions will peak and then fall steadily.In this situation,we firstly investigates whether the reallocation of provincial fossil energy consumption based on the Zero Sum Gains-Data Envelopment Analysis(ZSG-DEA)model improves the energy consumption intensity.Meanwhile,using the predicted data in 2030,we introduce the fairness index to further optimize the provincial quotas of energy consumption,carbon and pollutants emissions.According to the first estimation results,In the case that energy consumption efficiency are on the ZSG-DEA frontier,the reallocation solution drives both the significant efficiency improvements in the national energy consumption distribution and the obvious decrease in energy consumption intensity,which requires reductions of the western provinces’energy consumption quotas,while the quotas of eastern provinces should be gained.In another case,giving priority to efficiency with due consideration to fairness,the energy consumption quotas of the eastern provinces decrease,whereas the central and the western provinces gain more of it.However,the reallocation results of the carbon and pollutants emissions quotas show oppositely.Accordingly,the western provinces ought to set higher reduction targets,since they get not only the added energy consumption quotas,but also the less carbon and pollutants emissions quotas.