老龄化、财政负担与R&D投资

Aging,Financial Burden and R&D Investment

人口老龄化的加重会造成社会保障支出的增加,这是否会导致政府在R&D方面的支出不足?本文基于我国的省际面板数据,运用固定效应面板随机边界模型对此进行检验。研究发现:无论是采用虚拟变量法还是内转换法进行估计,人口老龄化对政府R&D支出约束部分均有显著的影响,这表明地区老龄抚养比的加重使得政府的R&D支出低于最优支出,尽管回归结果显示政府R&D支出效率较高,但依然存在个体老龄化程度不同的效率差异和区位效率差异。

The aggravation of population aging will lead to an increase in social security spending,and will it lead to the insufficient government spending on R&D?Based on China's provincial panel data,this pa⁃per uses the fixed effect panel stochastic boundary model to test the hypothesis.The study finds that:to es⁃timate whether with the dummy variable method or with the internal conversion method,the aging population has a significant impact on the Government R&D expenditure constraint,which indicates that the increase of the regional old-age dependency ratio makes the government's R&D expenditure lower than its optimal level.Although the regression results show that the efficiency of Government R&D expenditure is relatively high,efficiency differences still exist in different individual aging degrees and locations.