降低缴费率与延迟退休对养老保险基金充足性的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Reducing Pension Payment Rate and Delaying Retirement on Pension Funds Adequacy

2019年国务院办公厅印发了《降低社会保险费率综合方案》,该文件明确降低城镇职工基本养老保险单位缴费比例至16%,这对养老保险基金的充足性带来较大挑战。本文借助OLG模型研究降低养老保险缴费率和延迟退休两项政策对养老保险基金充足性的影响。研究发现:第一,单独实施养老保险降费政策,直接影响是导致稳态时期当期统筹账户基金收入大幅下降,间接影响是通过影响稳态状态下人均资本存量、工资水平,进而导致统筹账户基金支出、个人账户基金收入与支出的上升,并对基金充足性产生一定影响。第二,单独实施延迟退休政策,直接影响和间接影响的结果是使得统筹账户基金收入和个人账户基金收入先下降后上升,统筹账户支出明显下降,个人账户基金支出小幅下降。第三,降费背景下配套实施延迟退休政策,会显著减轻降费政策对基金充足性带来的挑战,并且随着退休年龄的逐步延迟,统筹基金缺口和总基金缺口都有可能缩小至降费前水平。

The General Office of the State Council issued The Comprehensive Plan for Reducing Social Premium Rates in 2019.This Plan explicitly cuts the unit contribution rate of basic pension insurance for urban workers to 16%,which will pose a greater challenge to the adequacy of pension insurance funds.With the help of the OLG model,this paperstudies the impact of the two policies of reducing the pension insurance contribution rate and delaying retirement on the adequacy of the pension insurance funds.The findings show that,firstly,implementing the pension insurance contribution reduction policy alone will directly lead to a significant decline of fund income in the current pooling account at the steady state period,and indirectly cause an increase in the pooling account fund expenditure and individual account fund income and expenditure through affecting the per capita capital stock and wage level at the steady state,which will exert a certain impact on the adequacy of funds.Secondly,the implementation of the delayed retirement policy alone will directly and indirectly result in a decline and then an increase in the income of the pooling account funds and the individual account funds,a significant decline in the expenditure of the pooling account funds,and a slight decline in the expenditure of the individual account funds.Thirdly,the implementation of the delayed retirement policy in the context of fee reduction will significantly reduce the challenges to the ade-quacy of funds brought by the fee reduction policy,and both the pooling fund gap and the total fund gap are likely to shrink to the prefee reduction level with the gradual delay in the retirement age.