气候变化背景下按蚊伊丽莎白菌全球和中国适生区分布预估研究

Prediction of suitable habitat distribution of Elizabethkingia anophelis in the world and China under climate change

目的明确按蚊伊丽莎白菌当前和未来适生区分布范围,为预防该菌暴发,有效防控该菌在中国的扩散和蔓延提供参考。方法收集按蚊伊丽莎白菌地理分布信息21份,结合56个气候因子,利用最大熵模型预估按蚊伊丽莎白菌全球和中国适生区,使用R 4.2.2软件调整模型参数,构建受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)并使用其曲线下面积(AUC)评估模型准确度,最终使用ArcGIS 10.5软件对结果进行可视化。结果年降水量(bio12,27.0%)和1月最低温(tmin01,22.2%)对按蚊伊丽莎白菌的分布贡献率最大,当前气候条件下,按蚊伊丽莎白菌的高适生区主要分布在美国东南部、南美洲北部、欧洲西部、非洲中部、亚洲东南部部分地区,在中国的高适生区主要分布在秦岭-淮河线以南湿润地区。未来气候条件下,不同强度的气候变化对其在全球及中国的适生区大体呈现促进作用,尤其是高辐射强迫下,其适生区面积增加较为显著。结论全球及中国在当前及未来气候条件下均存在较大面积的按蚊伊丽莎白菌适生区,且未来气候条件的变化对其适生区有促进作用。政府应采取措施控制温室气体排放,以降低对按蚊伊丽莎白菌适生区的促进作用,存在其高适生区的省份,应加强监测、风险评估和应对。

Objective To determine the current and future suitable areas of Elizabethkingia anophelis,and to provide a reference for preventing its outbreak and spread in China.Methods With 21 pieces of information on the geographical distribution of E.anophelis and data on 56 climatic factors,a MaxEnt model was used to estimate the suitable areas of E.anophelis in the world and China.R 4.2.2 software was used to adjust model parameters,and construct the receiver operating characteristic curve.The area under the curve was calculated to evaluate the accuracy of the model.The results were visualized using ArcGIS 10.5 software.Results Annual precipitation(bio12,27.0%)and the minimum temperature in January(tmin01,22.2%)contributed most to the distribution of E.anophelis.Under current climatic conditions,the highly suitable areas for E.anophelis were mainly distributed in the southeastern United States,northern South America,western Europe,central Africa,and parts of southeastern Asia;in China,they were mainly distributed in the wet regions south of the Qinling-Huaihe Line.Under future climatic conditions,climate changes of varying intensities generally promoted the suitable areas of E.anophelis in the world and China,especially under high radiative forcing.Conclusions There are large suitable areas for E.anophelis in the world and China under both current and future climate conditions,which are expected to be promoted with the change of climate in the future.Authorities should take measures to control greenhouse gas emissions to limit the increase of E.anophelis’suitable areas.Provinces with its highly suitable areas should strengthen surveillance,risk assessment and response.