竞争国汇率与出口产品质量:兼论人民币汇率的国际影响

Beggar-Thy-Neighbour Effects of Competitors'Exchange Rates on Export Product Quality

本文从理论上识别了多国环境下汇率对出口产品质量的影响机理,并在国际比较视角下探讨了人民币汇率的贸易溢出效应。研究发现:竞争国货币贬值对一国出口产品质量的影响存在“以邻为壑”效应,其程度不低于双边汇率的影响。进口中间品质量和他国竞争者产品质量是竞争国汇率产生影响的两个主要渠道。面对竞争国汇率冲击,差异化产品、高质量产品和垄断产品相对“免疫”。产品质量的调整呈现“棘轮效应”,对竞争国货币升值的反应更大。与其他特别提款权货币相比,人民币贬值对其他国家出口的负面影响处于低位水平。本文研究为企业应对竞争国汇率风险、人民币汇率国际声誉的维护等提供了有益参考。

This paper theoretically and empirically identifies the influence channel of exchange rates on the quality of export products in a multinational environment and discusses the trade spillover effects of RMB exchange rates from an international comparison perspective.The results of the study reveal that competitors'exchange rates(CERs)generate beggar-thy-neighbour effects on product quality that are not lower than those of bilateral exchange rates.The quality of import intermediate products and competitors'products are the two key factors affecting CERs.Manufacturers of differentiated products,high-quality products and products from monopolised industries and advanced countries are relatively resistant to the shock of CERs.Product quality adjusts more when competitors'currencies appreciate,suggesting a“ratchet effect”.Compared to other special drawing rights(SDR)currencies,the beggar-thy-neighbour effects of RMB depreciation are at a low level from the perspective of product quality,price and trade value.The conclusion of this paper provides a useful reference for exporters on how to cope with multinational exchange rate risks and maintain the international reputation of RMB exchange rates.