2023年2月全球新型冠状病毒感染疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in February 2023

目的评估2023年2月新型冠状病毒感染(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据世界卫生组织公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合全球COVID-19入境政策分析,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、各大洲及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。结果与2023年1月相比,2月全球月新增确诊病例环比下降了78.70%,月新增死亡病例环比下降了67.85%。各大洲2月每日新增确诊和死亡病例整体呈下降趋势。全球月新增确诊病例前10位国家中,俄罗斯和奥地利月环比增长显著,为全球重点关注国家。各大洲月新增确诊病例前3位国家中,大洋洲的瑙鲁月环比增长显著。俄罗斯是周边十四国特别关注国家,2月病例呈上升趋势且入境政策宽松。结论全球每日新增确诊病例和死亡病例2月整体呈下降趋势。对于重点国家要持续加强疫情监测,同相关机构建立沟通机制,互通有无,及时预警。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in February 2023 and the risk of importation.Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by World Health Organization,combined with the travel restrictions published by Sherpa,an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview,a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in each continent and key countries,as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and travel requirements in 14 neighbouring countries.Results Compared with the previous month,the number of confirmed cases and deaths globally decreased by 78.70%and 67.85%respectively in February 2023.Daily new confirmed cases and deaths showed a decreasing trend in all continents in February.Russia and Austria were countries with global concern,the new cases of which increased significantly this month compared with the last month.Nauru in Oceania also showed a rapid rise in the number of new cases in February.Special concern should be paid to Russia among the 14 land-boarding countries,whose cases rose in February and there were no international travel restriction related to COVID-19.Conclusion The global daily new confirmed cases and deaths showed a downward trend in February.It is necessary to continuously monitor countries with global concern and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies to exchange information and provide timely warnings.